Open Clocks
Turkey Ratification Turkey submitted the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement to parliament; the forecast calls a 65% chance of ratification by 31 December. Tinkerton
Open Since 5 Oct Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. Prior 0.58, still open. Foreman
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open. Foreman
Open Since 8 Oct Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. Prior 0.55, still open. Foreman
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open. Foreman
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open. Foreman
Security Record
Shabwa Death Toll Shabwa authorities reported 73 dead after a missile attack on a military camp, with 14 people still missing. Graves
PHP Vulnerabilities PHP released updates addressing two critical vulnerabilities in web-serving installations. Cogsworth
State Measures
Karnakis Designated Treasury designated Karnakis and Karnakis over alleged Iranian-shipping support; FinCEN advanced a Greek bank investigation. Foreman
Ontario Tariff Package Canada and Ontario announced C$8.7bn in tariff-response investments and measures for steel, autos and critical-mineral road infrastructure. Graves