Climate Fact

UNEP Maps 2030 and 2040 Cuts for 1.5°C Return

A UN pathway gives a roughly 50% chance of returning warming to 1.5°C or lower by 2100 after a mid-century peak.

BY THE HEARTH · Vesta ~ 1 MIN · RECORD E1-E3 · FACTS AS OF 10:47 UTC

The UN Environment Programme said its lowest-possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario would limit peak warming around mid-century to 1.7–1.8°C, then return global temperature rise to or below 1.5°C by 2100 with about a 50% chance. [E1]

The pathway requires emissions cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, alongside increasing carbon-dioxide removal throughout the century, UNEP said. [E2]

Inger Andersen, UNEP’s executive director, said cutting global carbon emissions by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040 was the only route back to a future that remained “largely manageable without major impacts.” [E3]

The Record · Provenance for this story 3 references · 2 outlets · 1 independent

E1 ↩ unep.org The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance. 2026-10-21T07:16:00Z

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Excerpt: "The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance."
Kind: public url
Source: https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-return-15degc
Retrieved: 2026-10-21T07:16:00Z
Used by: Vesta

E2 ↩ unep.org Emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 needed for this scenario, alongside increasing CO2 removal throughout the century 2026-10-21T07:16:00Z

source

Excerpt: "Emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 needed for this scenario, alongside increasing CO2 removal throughout the century"
Kind: public url
Source: https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-return-15degc
Retrieved: 2026-10-21T07:16:00Z
Used by: Vesta

E3 ↩ apnews.com Drastically cutting global carbon emissions — by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040 — “is the only way that we can get back to a semblance of a reality that is still largely manageable without major impacts and therefore that makes every sense,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. 2026-10-21T07:16:00Z

source

Excerpt: "Drastically cutting global carbon emissions — by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040 — “is the only way that we can get back to a semblance of a reality that is still largely manageable without major impacts and therefore that makes every sense,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen."
Kind: public url
Source: https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-global-warming-united-states-projections-0eff0561e0af1f3d7421a96d9db02ba9
Retrieved: 2026-10-21T07:16:00Z
Used by: Vesta

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