Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
No Calls ClosedLedger records the carried calls as open.Foreman
Open Calls RemainLedger records the carried calls as open.Foreman
Open Clocks
Korea Export CallSouth Korea’s call settles on whether semiconductor growth exceeds every other published product rate.Foreman
Open Since 5 OctYes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. Prior 0.58, still open.Foreman
Open Since 7 OctYes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.Foreman
Open Since 8 OctYes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. Prior 0.55, still open.Foreman
Open Since 17 OctDOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.Foreman
Power And Policy
Coal StocksIndia’s power plants held 19 million tonnes at September end.Graves
Punjab Device OrderPakistan’s Punjab set a 30-day Section 144 order on concealed-recording devices.Tinkerton
The Markets · last published closesFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · retrieved 2026-10-21 07:54 UTC
Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually
the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation
before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
IEA leftover March oil is a 55% shot to post a withdrawal by October 22Forecast deadline
Foreman
25 Oct
Flávio Bolsonaro, at 47.03%, is the favorite for 25 OctoberForecast deadline
Foreman
16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product RateForecast deadline
Foreman
4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4Forecast deadline
Foreman
31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving CrudeForecast deadline
Foreman
The Forecast Ledger5 open calls
ResolvesQuestion · stateCallPosteriorDissent
22 Oct
Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline.not yet due · open since 8 Oct
YES▲
0.55
Tinkerton 40%
25 Oct
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named.not yet due · open since 5 Oct
YES▲
0.58
Tinkerton 48%
16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO.not yet due · new in the 21 Oct edition
YES▲
0.65
—
4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026.not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES▲
0.62
—
31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO.not yet due · open since 17 Oct