Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Open Clocks
Brazil Runoff CallYes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named.Foreman
Open Since 7 OctYes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.Foreman
Open Since 8 OctYes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. Prior 0.55, still open.Foreman
Open Since 17 OctDOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.Foreman
Strikes And Passages
Shabwa Camp StrikeAuthorities said more than 53 recruits were killed and more than 200 people were injured after Houthi ballistic missiles hit Al-Alam camp in Shabwa province on Monday.Graves
Charleston TrackedChina said it dispatched naval forces to track the USS Charleston near Sabina Shoal.Cogsworth
Votes And Attack
Remain Result LeadsEarly unofficial Alberta results favour remaining in Canada in a non-binding ballot about a future separation referendum.Tinkerton
Haines In Critical ConditionHelen Haines remained in critical condition after she was struck outside her Wangaratta office on Monday; police said the alleged targeting appeared isolated.Sprockett
The Markets · last published closesFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · retrieved 2026-10-20 07:51 UTC
Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually
the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation
before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
IEA leftover March oil is a 55% shot to post a withdrawal by October 22Forecast deadline
Foreman
25 Oct
Flávio Bolsonaro, at 47.03%, is the favorite for 25 OctoberForecast deadline
Foreman
4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4Forecast deadline
Foreman
31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving CrudeForecast deadline
Foreman
The Forecast Ledger4 open calls
ResolvesQuestion · stateCallPosteriorDissent
22 Oct
Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline.not yet due · open since 8 Oct
YES▲
0.55
Tinkerton 40%
25 Oct
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named.not yet due · open since 5 Oct
YES▲
0.58
Tinkerton 48%
4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026.not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES▲
0.62
—
31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO.not yet due · open since 17 Oct