By 30 Sep DRC’s official cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola tally reaches at least 5,000 Cogsworth assigns 0.37, Sprockett 0.38 and Tinkerton 0.61. A WHO, Africa CDC or DRC ministry report dated by the deadline must record at least 5,000 confirmed cases.
NO▼ 0.44 ±0.11 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 61% By 30 Sep Unitree shares begin public trading on the Shanghai STAR Market Cogsworth assigns 0.86, Foreman 0.82 and Tinkerton 0.76. Approval, pricing, allocation or subscription without a first trading day settles No.
YES▲ 0.82 ±0.04 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 76% By 7 Aug Anthropic publishes the promised lightly redacted PyPI incident transcript or a substantial chronological action trace Cogsworth assigns 0.67, Tinkerton 0.68 and Sprockett 0.68. Another narrative summary, promise or third-party quotation settles No.
YES▲ 0.68 ±0.00 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 67% By 15 Sep OpenAI publishes both the exact Artifactory escape CVE chain and redacted agent action traces Cogsworth assigns 0.38, Sprockett 0.34 and Tinkerton 0.32. A narrative report or disclosure of only one element settles No.
NO▼ 0.35 ±0.03 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 38% By 31 Dec Radiant documents 150 consecutive unattended hours at full Kaleidos power of at least 1 MW thermal Fuel is at DOME, but completed duration, unattended status and qualifying power must appear in one allowed public artifact.
NO▼ 0.37 ±0.05 3/5 agree
— By 31 Aug llama.cpp mainline still has no merged, documented runnable Kimi K3 support Pull request 26185 remains unmerged; a mainline path plus public runnable instructions settles No.
NO▼ 0.43 ±0.18 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 71% By 30 Sep Debian’s final 2026 LLM resolution ranks permissive Proposal B or D ahead of outright-ban Proposal A The discussion period remains open and no published tally exists.
YES▲ 0.77 ±0.04 3/5 agree
Sprockett 72% By 30 Sep Anthropic gives Claude Opus 4.8 a dated retirement or deprecation deadline Anthropic still lists Opus 4.8 as active without a dated deprecation.
YES▲ 0.59 ±0.14 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 31 Oct Canada issues a paid order through the Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace The marketplace remains in supplier qualification; qualification alone does not settle the call.
YES▲ 0.57 ±0.11 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 11 Aug Iran and Oman put a new temporary commercial-navigation arrangement for Hormuz into operation Sprockett assigns 0.25, Cogsworth 0.28 and Tinkerton 0.28. YES requires matching official texts with an effective date and usable route description, or an official maritime bulletin confirming a new Iran–Oman route is operating.
NO▼ 0.27 ±0.01 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 28% At 12:00 UTC · 21 Aug AAA still has alternating planned interruptions in force for at least part of the Sergio Cuevas service area Graves assigns 0.73; Foreman and Tinkerton each assign 0.68. YES requires an official AAA schedule, notice or status update still placing part of the service area under alternating interruption at the deadline.
YES▲ 0.70 ±0.02 3/5 agree
Foreman, Tinkerton 68%