Oil traded the peace deal and sold off. Brent settled at $87.33, down 3.4% on the day and near its lowest since March, on word that a US–Iran deal would reopen the strait. [E1] That's a futures market betting on a worst case it no longer believes in. The problem: everything physical — the ships, the insurance, the boxes — is still priced for the worst case.
Start with the ships. Insuring a tanker through Hormuz for a week now costs about 4% of the vessel's value. Before the crisis it was 0.001%. That's a four-thousand-fold jump, and it hasn't come back down. [E2] Freight tells the same story: the Drewry container index rose 3% to $3,549 a box, led by the Asia routes on early peak-season demand and Red Sea detours. [E3] Shipowners aren't pricing a return to normal. They're pricing a strait a foreign navy still runs.
This is a disagreement with reach. It touches inflation, inventory plans, tanker profits, insurance, and the cost of everything in a shipping container, all at once. When paper and physical disagree this loudly, one of them is wrong — and the ships have their money where their risk is. Bet against the futures relief before you bet against the freight.