The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Macro
Binance Attribution The FBI attributed the Binance theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor.
Hardware
Learjet Crash A Learjet 60 crashed in Palm Beach County after pilots reported manageable ice and turbulence.
Open Clocks
Executive Options Aides have mapped possible moves if Democrats take Congress; the work remains preparatory.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Open Since 27 Oct YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then. Prior 0.58, still open.
Open Since 30 Oct YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 31 Oct A qualifying public record establishes all 500 approved PAC-3 MSE interceptors are delivered to Ukraine and operationally available by 1 December 2026; NO if no such record appears by then. Prior 0.01, still open.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
Civil defence
False Alerts Show Warning Apps Are Civilian Action Systems 2 Alert systems affected
1 Attributing officials
Gaza
Israeli Strikes Kill at Least Eight Palestinians in Gaza 5 Police officers killed
8 Deaths reported
CYBERSECURITY
FBI Adds TraderTraitor Detail to Binance Theft Attribution $6bn+ FBI-stated theft amount
$1.5bn Bybit theft tied to group
90% Binance stated replacement
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
1 Nov · 16:00 Sprockett
16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 1 Dec
1%: Public Record Shows All 500 Approved PAC-3 MSE Interceptors Operational in Ukraine by 1 December Forecast deadline
Cogsworth 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 31 Jan
Intel Has a 65% Chance of Saying Fab 28 Constrains Server Chips Forecast deadline
Cogsworth The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. due — awaiting verification · open since 24 Oct Ledger, 2 Nov: Checked today's corpus; research requested; no qualifying official record yet.
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then due — awaiting verification · open since 27 Oct Ledger, 2 Nov: Checked today's corpus; research requested; no qualifying Egyptian record yet.
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 1 Dec
A qualifying public record establishes all 500 approved PAC-3 MSE interceptors are delivered to Ukraine and operationally available by 1 December 2026; NO if no such record appears by then not yet due · open since 31 Oct
NO 0.01
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% 31 Jan
YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027 not yet due · open since 30 Oct
YES 0.65
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
No call settled at this bell.