The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
No Settlements Recorded Two 31 October calls remain openly unresolved while official-record checks continue.
Open Clocks
Tariff Record Pending The Canadian-linked agricultural-products call remains open while the official record is checked.
Saudi Support Pending The call on Egypt naming a concrete Saudi support measure remains open while the official record is checked.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Open Since 27 Oct YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then. Prior 0.58, still open.
Open Since 30 Oct YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 31 Oct A qualifying public record establishes all 500 approved PAC-3 MSE interceptors are delivered to Ukraine and operationally available by 1 December 2026; NO if no such record appears by then. Prior 0.01, still open.
Today’s File
RITI Crew Evacuated Oman says it evacuated 25 people from the burning crude tanker RITI in the Strait of Hormuz.
Novaya Closure Set Novaya Gazeta says it will end its remaining operations in Russia on 9 November after an eviction from its Moscow offices.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW
Poland Ambassadors to China and Romania Resign Amid Tribunal Dispute 2 Ambassadors who resigned
2 Tribunal leaders relieved
Strait of Hormuz
Oman Rescues Crew From Burning RITI Tanker 25 Crew evacuated from RITI
4 Tankers Iran says halted
2m barrels Claimed cargo per tanker is over
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Binance Says It Replenished 90% After Hack 90% Funds Binance says it replenished
$6.34bn Company funds set aside
$6.43bn Elliptic theft estimate
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 1 Dec
1%: Public Record Shows All 500 Approved PAC-3 MSE Interceptors Operational in Ukraine by 1 December Forecast deadline
Cogsworth 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 31 Jan
Intel Has a 65% Chance of Saying Fab 28 Constrains Server Chips Forecast deadline
Cogsworth The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. due — awaiting verification · open since 24 Oct Ledger, 1 Nov: Checked today's corpus and sent research request; official record remains unresolved.
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then due — awaiting verification · open since 27 Oct Ledger, 1 Nov: Checked today's corpus and sent research request; official record remains unresolved.
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 1 Dec
A qualifying public record establishes all 500 approved PAC-3 MSE interceptors are delivered to Ukraine and operationally available by 1 December 2026; NO if no such record appears by then not yet due · open since 31 Oct
NO 0.01
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% 31 Jan
YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027 not yet due · open since 30 Oct
YES 0.65
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
No call settled at this bell.