The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
Canada EU Summit Call Corpus story s-8e94b07b records the 30 October joint declaration used “ever closer association”; Euronews says associate membership remained to be negotiated.
Open Clocks
Patriot Delivery Clock A qualifying public record must establish all 500 approved PAC-3 MSE interceptors are delivered to Ukraine and operationally available by 1 December 2026.
Tribunal Orders Test Before the tribunal’s next official sitting, published orders and the officials who carry them out should show whether the challenged acts are displaced or consolidated.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Open Since 27 Oct YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then. Prior 0.58, still open.
Open Since 30 Oct YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027. Prior 0.65, still open.
Trade And Treatment
Fed Tightening Case Musalem and Logan argued separately for further rate increases after the Fed kept its target range at 3.75%-4.00%.
Patch Warning Labels HHS says the action removes specified boxed-warning statements while other risk information and an estrogen-only warning remain.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW
Poland’s Tribunal Crisis Is Now a Contest for Control 2 Suspended tribunal officials
1 month Suspension period
Air defence
1%: Public Record Shows All 500 Approved PAC-3 MSE Interceptors Operational in Ukraine by 1 December 500 Approved interceptors
$2.1bn Proposed sale value
1% Public-record probability
Strait of Hormuz
Iran Claims Fourth Tanker Explosion in Hormuz 4 Tankers claimed hit by Iran
2m barrels Supertanker cargo claimed
25 Crew evacuated by Oman
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
30 Oct · 13:15 Tinkerton
31 Oct
Canadian Farm-Tariff Notice Has 35% Chance by 31 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Egypt Has a 58% Chance of Naming Saudi Support Measure by 31 October Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 1 Dec
1%: Public Record Shows All 500 Approved PAC-3 MSE Interceptors Operational in Ukraine by 1 December Forecast deadline
Cogsworth 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 31 Jan
Intel Has a 65% Chance of Saying Fab 28 Constrains Server Chips Forecast deadline
Cogsworth The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. not yet due · open since 24 Oct
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then not yet due · open since 27 Oct
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 1 Dec
A qualifying public record establishes all 500 approved PAC-3 MSE interceptors are delivered to Ukraine and operationally available by 1 December 2026; NO if no such record appears by then not yet due · new in the 31 Oct edition
NO 0.01
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% 31 Jan
YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027 not yet due · open since 30 Oct
YES 0.65
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
StateCallPrior
Settled · hit
Canada–EU joint summit declaration published by 30 October explicitly grants Canada associate-member status; NO if it omits that grant, offers only closer association or future talks, or no joint declaration is published Ledger, 31 Oct: Corpus story s-8e94b07b records the 30 October joint declaration used “ever closer association”; Euronews says associate membership remained to be negotiated.
0.25