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Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
Bloc Count Miss Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO. Research answer E1–E3 records no consultations begun; official results await 4 November.
Bloc Count Hit Both blocs below 61 in complete Oct. 29 count, otherwise NO. Today’s corpus story s-f1e310a2 records the completed 53-seat and 48-seat bloc count.
Open Clocks
Fab 28 Supply Call Intel’s desk assigns a 65% chance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability in public guidance by 31 January 2027.
Sweden Vote Scheduled The Riksdag is scheduled to test Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist’s nomination on 3 November at 13:00.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Open Since 27 Oct YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then. Prior 0.58, still open.
Open Since 29 Oct Canada–EU joint summit declaration published by 30 October explicitly grants Canada associate-member status; NO if it omits that grant, offers only closer association or future talks, or no joint declaration is published. Prior 0.25, still open.
Today’s File
Haiti Force Deploys El Salvador has deployed more than 2,000 soldiers to Haiti to retrieve four nationals who went missing after an ambush.
Bank Of Japan Holds The Bank of Japan held its overnight call-rate target around 1.25% in an 8–1 vote.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
Semiconductors
Intel Has a 65% Chance of Saying Fab 28 Constrains Server Chips 65% Forecast probability
$300m Fourth-quarter revenue impact
2 weeks Production halt
Haiti deployment
El Salvador’s Haiti Force Points Beyond a Recovery Mission 2,000 Soldiers deployed to Haiti
4 Missing GSF members
Central Banks
Bank of Japan Holds Rate While Raising Planned ETF Sales 1.25% Overnight rate target
8–1 Rate-decision vote
¥860bn Planned annual ETF sales
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
30 Oct
Canada Associate-Member Status Has a 25% Chance in EU Declaration Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 31 Oct
Canadian Farm-Tariff Notice Has 35% Chance by 31 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Egypt Has a 58% Chance of Naming Saudi Support Measure by 31 October Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 31 Jan
Intel Has a 65% Chance of Saying Fab 28 Constrains Server Chips Forecast deadline
Cogsworth The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
30 Oct
Canada–EU joint summit declaration published by 30 October explicitly grants Canada associate-member status; NO if it omits that grant, offers only closer association or future talks, or no joint declaration is published not yet due · open since 29 Oct
NO 0.25
Foreman 10% 31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. not yet due · open since 24 Oct
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then not yet due · open since 27 Oct
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% 31 Jan
YES if Intel says in public product or customer guidance that Fab 28 constrains server-chip availability by 31 January 2027; NO if qualifying guidance by then omits that statement, or if Intel publishes no qualifying public product or customer guidance by 31 January 2027 not yet due · new in the 30 Oct edition
YES 0.65
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
StateCallPrior
Settled · miss
Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO Ledger, 30 Oct: Research answer E1–E3 records no consultations begun; official results await 4 November.
0.75 Settled · hit
Both blocs below 61 in complete Oct. 29 count, otherwise NO Ledger, 30 Oct: Today's corpus story s-f1e310a2 records the completed 53-seat and 48-seat bloc count.
0.50