The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
Canada Rate Decision The Bank of Canada raised its overnight-rate target by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
Open Clocks
Canada EU Declaration The forecast settles on a joint declaration by 30 October that explicitly grants Canada associate-member status.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Open Since 27 Oct YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then. Prior 0.58, still open.
Open Since 27 Oct Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO. Prior 0.75, still open.
Open Since 28 Oct Both blocs below 61 in complete Oct. 29 count, otherwise NO. Prior 0.50, still open.
Across The Desk
Jio Market Debut Jio Platforms’ shares opened at ₹1,358 after its initial public offering.
Hong Kong Resignation Winnie Ho stopped performing her housing secretary duties on Oct. 29 after resigning.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
Grey-Zone Coercion
Taiwan’s Vessel Map Puts Sustained Coercion to the Test 34 ships Navy warships on map
19 vessels Other official vessels
6 Aircraft sorties near Taiwan
IPOs
Jio’s Debut Puts It Second Behind Reliance $3.2bn IPO proceeds
>$77bn Investor bids
₹1,358 Opening price
Strait of Hormuz
South Korea Says No Hormuz Deployment Decision Has Been Made P-8A Aircraft in earlier options
None Decision on deployment
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
29 Oct
Both Blocs Below 61 in Israel’s Complete Oct. 29 Count Is a 50% Call Forecast deadline
Foreman 30 Oct
Canada Associate-Member Status Has a 25% Chance in EU Declaration Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 31 Oct
Canadian Farm-Tariff Notice Has 35% Chance by 31 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Egypt Has a 58% Chance of Naming Saudi Support Measure by 31 October Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
29 Oct
Both blocs below 61 in complete Oct. 29 count, otherwise NO not yet due · open since 28 Oct
YES 0.50
— 30 Oct
Canada–EU joint summit declaration published by 30 October explicitly grants Canada associate-member status; NO if it omits that grant, offers only closer association or future talks, or no joint declaration is published not yet due · new in the 29 Oct edition
NO 0.25
Foreman 10% 31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. not yet due · open since 24 Oct
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then not yet due · open since 27 Oct
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% no date
Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO due — awaiting verification · open since 27 Oct Ledger, 29 Oct: Checked today’s Israel-election corpus; both blocs remain below 61, and research was requested for any official coalition-builder appointment.
YES 0.75
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
No call settled at this bell.