The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
Saudi Support Measure YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then.
Open Clocks
Israel Coalition Call Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO.
India Rate Decision Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if the decision sets any other rate, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
On The Front
Jio Shares Debut Jio Platforms began trading on the NSE and BSE after its initial public offering.
Belgrade Threat Raised Serbia raised its terrorism threat level after an officer was wounded outside Israel’s embassy in Belgrade.
Arnab Makes Landfall Cyclone Arnab made landfall on India’s east coast as a very severe cyclonic storm.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
Israel election
Both Blocs Below 61 in Israel’s Complete Oct. 29 Count Is a 50% Call 50% Forecast chance
4,875,751 Votes counted
54 seats Netanyahu bloc count
Semiconductors
Report Says CXMT Has Begun Small-Quantity HBM3E Production 2027 Planned production expansion
2 firms Named chip designers testing HBM3E
UK Politics
Britain Says Ofgem Will Be Asked to End Gas Standing Charges £108/year Typical annual standing charge
60% Accounts estimated to save
£45/year Estimated annual saving
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
29 Oct
Both Blocs Below 61 in Israel’s Complete Oct. 29 Count Is a 50% Call Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Canadian Farm-Tariff Notice Has 35% Chance by 31 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Egypt Has a 58% Chance of Naming Saudi Support Measure by 31 October Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
29 Oct
Both blocs below 61 in complete Oct. 29 count, otherwise NO not yet due · new in the 28 Oct edition
YES 0.50
— 31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. not yet due · open since 24 Oct
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then not yet due · open since 27 Oct
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% no date
Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO due — awaiting verification · open since 27 Oct Ledger, 28 Oct: Checked s-766b4769 and research answer; no mandate recipient, official results scheduled 4 November.
YES 0.75
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
No call settled at this bell.