The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
Brazil Runoff Miss Corpus record s-1e0c0990 reports Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court called the race for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Open Clocks
Saudi Support Measure The forecast is 58% that Cairo publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October.
Israel Coalition Test The forecast is 75% that official results leave both blocs below 61 and a coalition-builder is named within seven days.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Industry And Safety
Villach GaN Investment Infineon committed €1.1 billion to a Villach site for high-volume 300 mm gallium-nitride power-semiconductor production.
Prospector Five Missing Borr Drilling says five people remain unaccounted for after the Prospector 5 sinking.
The Markets · last published closes
SeriesValueChangeAs of
SeriesValueChangeAs of
SeriesValueChangeAs of
SeriesValueChangeAs of
Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
Korean border
Kaepung Guns Show a Signal Before an Order 122 mm Gun calibre
24 km Maximum range
about 3 Visible guns
Semiconductors
Infineon Commits €1.1bn to Villach GaN Program €1.1bn Villach investment
300mm Wafer diameter
End 2027 Planned production start
Oil
Borr Drilling Reaffirms Five Missing After Rig Sinking 115 People aboard
110 Safe and accounted for
5 Still unaccounted for
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
31 Oct
Canadian Farm-Tariff Notice Has 35% Chance by 31 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Egypt Has a 58% Chance of Naming Saudi Support Measure by 31 October Forecast deadline
Tinkerton 16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. not yet due · open since 24 Oct
NO 0.35
— 31 Oct
YES if Egypt publicly names a concrete Saudi support measure by 31 October; NO if no such measure is published by then not yet due · new in the 27 Oct edition
YES 0.58
Sprockett 42% 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% no date
Both blocs below 61; coalition-builder named in 7 days, otherwise NO not yet due · new in the 27 Oct edition
YES 0.75
— Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
StateCallPrior
Settled · miss
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. Ledger, 27 Oct: Corpus record s-1e0c0990 reports Brazil's Superior Electoral Court called the race for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
0.58