The Tape
Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Closed Clocks
IEA Withdrawal Missed Searched today's corpus _all.index for IEA, Collective Action, oil stocks and withdrawal; no qualifying official record appeared. Research request ledger-2026-10-25-due was refused.
Open Clocks
Airport Continuity The next declared threat against King Khalid International Airport will test whether its reopened terminals remain in passenger service.
Serbia Vote Serbia opened polling Sunday for a snap parliamentary election.
Open Since 5 Oct Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. Prior 0.58, still open.
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open.
Open Since 21 Oct 65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 22 Oct Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. Prior 0.65, still open.
Open Since 24 Oct YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. Prior 0.35, still open.
Storm and Search
Gabon Search Of 115 people aboard Prospector 5, 110 were safely accounted for and five remained unaccounted for.
Taiwan Injuries Taiwan said Tropical Storm Champi injured 616 people as the land warning ended.
The Markets · last published closes
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Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Today's Numbers
Riyadh
Riyadh Airport Reopening Now Depends on Air Defence 2 Terminals reopened
7 Claimed operations
Oil
Rig Sinks Off Gabon as Five Remain Missing 115 People aboard
110 Safely accounted for
5 Still unaccounted for
SERBIA VOTE
Serbia Opens Snap Parliamentary Vote With Main Camps Close 18 Parties seeking seats
250 Assembly members elected
3% Representation threshold
The Deadlines
DueWhat · stateDesk
25 Oct
Flávio Bolsonaro, at 47.03%, is the favorite for 25 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Oct
Canadian Farm-Tariff Notice Has 35% Chance by 31 October Forecast deadline
Foreman 16 Nov
South Korea Has a 65% Chance Semiconductor Growth Exceeds Every Other Product Rate Forecast deadline
Foreman 4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman 31 Dec
Turkey Parliament Has a 65% Chance of Ratifying Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December Forecast deadline
Tinkerton The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
25 Oct
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. not yet due · open since 5 Oct
YES 0.58
Tinkerton 48% 31 Oct
YES if, by 31 October, an official U.S. tariff schedule, proclamation or implementing notice names eligible Canadian-linked agricultural products and an effective date; NO if no such record is published by then, and a statement without both terms does not qualify. not yet due · open since 24 Oct
NO 0.35
— 16 Nov
65% chance: by Nov. 16, Korea Customs Service reports semiconductor export growth exceeds every other published product growth rate; a tie, missing comparison or no release is NO. not yet due · open since 21 Oct
YES 0.65
— 4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES 0.62
— 31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO 0.25
Graves 10% 31 Dec
Turkey's parliament ratifying the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by 31 December 2026; NO if no official parliamentary approval record is posted by 31 December 2026. not yet due · open since 22 Oct
YES 0.65
Cogsworth 40% Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
StateCallPrior
Settled · miss
Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. Ledger, 25 Oct: Searched today's corpus _all.index for IEA, Collective Action, oil stocks and withdrawal; no qualifying official record appeared. Research request ledger-2026-10-25-due was refused.
0.55