SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2026 Archive ↗
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Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.

The Markets File
Closed Clocks
No Calls Settled Ledger’s settlement document records no settled call. Foreman
Open Clocks
Diesel Loading Call Checked today's corpus and s-eb8bafac; asked research; no answer yet. Graves
Brazil Runoff Call The Brazil runoff call remains open until the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names a winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff. Foreman
Open Since 5 Oct Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. Prior 0.58, still open. Foreman
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open. Foreman
Open Since 8 Oct Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. Prior 0.55, still open. Foreman
Open Since 11 Oct Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 16 October 2026, that at least 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel has been loaded onto tankers under the US Treasury energy-sector waiver announced on 9 October 2026; no if no such report is posted by that deadline. Prior 0.42, still open. Foreman
Open Since 17 Oct DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. Prior 0.25, still open. Foreman
Alerts and Operations
Shelter Order Lithuania issued a red alert and ordered residents in central and northern areas to shelters after detecting an unidentified object. Sprockett
Fence Breach Inquiry Police are assessing whether a vehicle breached the Leipzig/Halle perimeter near parked Russian Antonov cargo aircraft. Cogsworth
Centinela Agreement Workers at Chile’s Centinela copper mine backed an agreement by 94.49% of voting workers, and the company said production remained according to plan. Graves
The Markets · last published closesFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · retrieved 2026-10-18 07:56 UTC
Rates
US 2-year Treasury yield4.77%−5 bpclose 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct
US 10-year Treasury yield5.10%−9 bpclose 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct
FX
US dollars per euro1.1193+0.0001 (+0.01%)noon NY 9 Oct · vs 8 Oct
US dollars per pound1.3229+0.0018 (+0.14%)noon NY 9 Oct · vs 8 Oct
Yen per US dollar158.34+0.01 (+0.01%)noon NY 9 Oct · vs 8 Oct
Commodities
Brent crude, $/barrel$126.55+0.77 (+0.61%)spot 14 Oct · vs 13 Oct
WTI crude, $/barrel$101.91+1.05 (+1.04%)spot 14 Oct · vs 13 Oct
Henry Hub gas, $/MMBtu$3.22+0.08 (+2.55%)spot 14 Oct · vs 13 Oct
Equities
S&P 5007,659.44−84.62 (−1.09%)close 16 Oct · vs 15 Oct
Nasdaq Composite26,713.03+20.16 (+0.08%)close 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct
VIX volatility index16.46−0.41 (−2.43%)close 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct

Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.

Today's Numbers
Russia Sanctions
Rubio States a 60-Day Period for Russia Duty Waiver
60 days Administration period
115(a) Waiver authority
112–113 Duty sections waived
LABOR
Chile’s Centinela Workers Back Agreement
94.49% Workers backing agreement
97.32% Participation
709 Workers in strike
AIRSPACE
Lithuania Orders Shelters After Unidentified Object Alert
1 hour Shelter-order duration
2 Lithuania and Latvia warnings
The Deadlines17 Oct – 31 Dec
17 Oct · 15:00 Cogsworth
22 Oct · 16:00
IEA leftover March oil is a 55% shot to post a withdrawal by October 22 Forecast deadline
Foreman
25 Oct
Flávio Bolsonaro, at 47.03%, is the favorite for 25 October Forecast deadline
Foreman
4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman
31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman
The Forecast Ledger 5 open calls · 1 due, awaiting verification
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
16 Oct
Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 16 October 2026, that at least 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel has been loaded onto tankers under the US Treasury energy-sector waiver announced on 9 October 2026; no if no such report is posted by that deadline. due — awaiting verification · open since 11 Oct Ledger, 18 Oct: Checked today's corpus and s-eb8bafac; asked research; no answer yet.
NO▼
Update 13 Oct: 42% → 33% 0.33
Graves 28%
22 Oct
Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. not yet due · open since 8 Oct
YES▲
0.55
Tinkerton 40%
25 Oct
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. not yet due · open since 5 Oct
YES▲
0.58
Tinkerton 48%
4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES▲
0.62
—
31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · open since 17 Oct
NO▼
0.25
Graves 10%

Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers

Track Record · Settlement Record to date · 37 hit · 26 miss

No call settled at this bell.

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