SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2026 Archive ↗
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Rates · FX · commodities · equities — the latest published closes, read at the bell.

The Markets File
Closed Clocks
No Calls Settled Ledger’s settlement document records no settled call. Foreman
Open Clocks
Diesel Loading Call Checked today's corpus and requested research; no threshold-loading record has arrived. Graves
SPR Delivery Call The SPR exchange forecast settles on 31 December 2026 if DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record or if no such record is published by then. Foreman
Open Since 5 Oct Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. Prior 0.58, still open. Foreman
Open Since 7 Oct Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open. Foreman
Open Since 8 Oct Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. Prior 0.55, still open. Foreman
Open Since 11 Oct Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 16 October 2026, that at least 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel has been loaded onto tankers under the US Treasury energy-sector waiver announced on 9 October 2026; no if no such report is posted by that deadline. Prior 0.42, still open. Foreman
Technology Transfer
China Export List China’s ministries propose controls on 40 technologies, with the final export boundary left to their next action after the November 15 deadline. Cogsworth
Russia Duties Waived The order invokes Section 115 to waive specified duties and leaves further action to the president or Secretary of State. Tinkerton
The Markets · last published closesFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · retrieved 2026-10-17 07:49 UTC
Rates
US 2-year Treasury yield4.77%−5 bpclose 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct
US 10-year Treasury yield5.10%−9 bpclose 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct
FX
US dollars per euro1.1193+0.0001 (+0.01%)noon NY 9 Oct · vs 8 Oct
US dollars per pound1.3229+0.0018 (+0.14%)noon NY 9 Oct · vs 8 Oct
Yen per US dollar158.34+0.01 (+0.01%)noon NY 9 Oct · vs 8 Oct
Commodities
Brent crude, $/barrel$126.55+0.77 (+0.61%)spot 14 Oct · vs 13 Oct
WTI crude, $/barrel$101.91+1.05 (+1.04%)spot 14 Oct · vs 13 Oct
Henry Hub gas, $/MMBtu$3.22+0.08 (+2.55%)spot 14 Oct · vs 13 Oct
Equities
S&P 5007,659.44−84.62 (−1.09%)close 16 Oct · vs 15 Oct
Nasdaq Composite26,713.03+20.16 (+0.08%)close 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct
VIX volatility index16.46−0.41 (−2.43%)close 15 Oct · vs 14 Oct

Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.

Today's Numbers
Technology transfer
China’s Proposed List Puts a Gate in Technology Transfer
40 Technologies proposed
14 Proposed export bans
15 Nov Comment deadline
SPR exchange
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude
17m bbl Solicitation ceiling
0.5m bbl June award volume
25% Forecast probability
Energy grid
Ukraine Says Attacks Caused Emergency Outages in Kyiv and Five Regions
6 Areas named by ministry
9 Regions in AP report
The Deadlines16 Oct – 31 Dec
16 Oct · 16:00 Graves
16 Oct · 23:00 Cogsworth
22 Oct · 16:00
IEA leftover March oil is a 55% shot to post a withdrawal by October 22 Forecast deadline
Foreman
25 Oct
Flávio Bolsonaro, at 47.03%, is the favorite for 25 October Forecast deadline
Foreman
4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4 Forecast deadline
Foreman
31 Dec · 23:59
SPR Exchange Has a 25% Chance of Moving Crude Forecast deadline
Foreman
The Forecast Ledger 5 open calls · 1 due, awaiting verification
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
16 Oct
Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 16 October 2026, that at least 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel has been loaded onto tankers under the US Treasury energy-sector waiver announced on 9 October 2026; no if no such report is posted by that deadline. due — awaiting verification · open since 11 Oct Ledger, 17 Oct: Checked today's corpus and requested research; no threshold-loading record has arrived.
NO▼
Update 13 Oct: 42% → 33% 0.33
Graves 28%
22 Oct
Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. not yet due · open since 8 Oct
YES▲
0.55
Tinkerton 40%
25 Oct
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. not yet due · open since 5 Oct
YES▲
0.58
Tinkerton 48%
4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. not yet due · open since 7 Oct
YES▲
0.62
—
31 Dec
DOE publishes an award-and-delivery record showing SPR crude moved under this solicitation by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026; otherwise NO. not yet due · new in the 17 Oct edition
NO▼
0.25
Graves 10%

Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers

Track Record · Settlement Record to date · 37 hit · 26 miss

No call settled at this bell.

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