Open Clocks
IEA Leftover To 22 Oct Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. The prior is 0.55. Foreman
Brazil Runoff 25 October Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. The prior is 0.58. Foreman
RBI Hold To December Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. The prior is 0.62. Foreman
Open Since 6 Oct Yes if Élections Québec posts a complete official National Assembly seat table awarding the Parti Québécois 64 or more of 127 seats by 16:00 UTC on 12 October 2026; no if that table awards 63 or fewer, or if no complete official seat table is posted by then. Prior 0.28, still open. Foreman
Open Since 10 Oct Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 13 October 2026, that Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation met their 12 October dollar requirements through the Reserve Bank of India's special window and did not bid for those dollars in the onshore spot market; no if any of the three is reported bidding in that market for those requirements, or if no such report is posted by that deadline. Prior 0.64, still open. Foreman
Open Since 11 Oct Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 16 October 2026, that at least 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel has been loaded onto tankers under the US Treasury energy-sector waiver announced on 9 October 2026; no if no such report is posted by that deadline. Prior 0.42, still open. Foreman
Prints And March
Monday Brent At 62% Brent fell 1.31% to $103.35 by 00:37 GMT on Monday. There is a 62% probability that Brent's 12 October 2026 daily settlement is at or above $100 a barrel. Foreman
Six Stations Closed Delhi Metro closed six central stations from 6 am to 4 pm on Monday ahead of a called Congress march. Interchange remained available. Tinkerton
Pyongyang Fires East Sea North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles toward the East Sea on Monday. Seoul's Joint Chiefs timed Pyongyang-area launches at about 9:20 a.m.; Japan counted two, the longer flying more than 910 km. Cogsworth