Brent crude futures fell $1.37, or 1.31%, to $103.35 a barrel by 00:37 GMT on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.55, down $1.30, or 1.42%. [E5] Those prints are the first since this paper's 11 October forecast.
Both main crude contracts sank more than 1% following the US president's declaration, even as it sparked astonishment in Kyiv, which also said Moscow had struck multiple power plants in the country. [E3]
President Donald Trump said early Sunday on Truth Social: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine." "Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" [E4]
Kyiv said it would support such a move, BBC reported, with Moscow yet to comment. [E6]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later said Russia had hit a power plant in Kyiv with a drone, causing power cuts, followed by strikes on energy facilities in the north-eastern Kharkiv region. "All of this happened after the president of the United States made his statement about an energy ceasefire," he said. [E7]
Tim Waterer, KCM Trade chief analyst, said the announcements eased some of the immediate supply pressure. [E1] "Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited," he added. [E2]
The desk's reading. There is a 62% probability that Brent crude's 12 October 2026 daily settlement is at or above $100 a barrel. The start is this paper's 11 October split between an announced diesel calendar and cargo that has posted a loading: a presidential post moves the futures screen before it moves barrels. The 00:37 GMT print still three digits after that drop, Waterer's limited-pullback call, Kyiv's named hits on a Kyiv plant and Kharkiv energy sites after the declaration, and Moscow's silence, move it up. Waterer's finding that the announcements eased some immediate supply pressure, and a morning session that still has the London settlement window to run, move it down. The competing reading is that the announcements have already eased enough immediate supply pressure for Brent to leave three digits today. A later print through $100, or a verified mutual halt on energy sites, would move the call down. A restated ceasefire with plants still hit would move it up. The drop is a futures reaction to the post, not barrels that have stopped.
The next test. Brent crude's daily settlement for 12 October 2026. A print at or above $100 confirms three-digit Brent held while the session priced the claim. A print through that line confirms the selling ran through the announcement. A verified mutual halt on energy-site strikes, posted by a named official source before that settlement, is the physical test that would separate a paper move from barrels that have stopped.