Open Clocks
IEA Leftover To 22 Oct Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline. The prior is 0.55. Foreman
Brazil Runoff 25 October Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. The prior is 0.58. Foreman
RBI Hold To December Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. The prior is 0.62. Foreman
Open Since 6 Oct Yes if Élections Québec posts a complete official National Assembly seat table awarding the Parti Québécois 64 or more of 127 seats by 16:00 UTC on 12 October 2026; no if that table awards 63 or fewer, or if no complete official seat table is posted by then. Prior 0.28, still open. Foreman
Open Since 10 Oct Yes if a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 13 October 2026, that Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation met their 12 October dollar requirements through the Reserve Bank of India's special window and did not bid for those dollars in the onshore spot market; no if any of the three is reported bidding in that market for those requirements, or if no such report is posted by that deadline. Prior 0.64, still open. Foreman
Waiver And Flood
Diesel Loading At 42% Trump said Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel under a temporary Treasury waiver. There is a 42% probability a named loading of that first step is posted by 16:00 UTC on 16 October. Foreman
Five Missing In Gorkha Nepal's disaster authority said five people remain missing and 47 were rescued after a landslide-linked flood on the Budhi Gandaki in Gorkha. Mishra said five to seven houses at Jagat were swept away. Cogsworth
Court Limits Delhi Detentions Justices Joymalya Bagchi and V Mohana, sitting on Sunday, ordered no detention except by legal procedure and told Delhi to restore metro, rail and internet. About 41,000 security personnel detained 7,000 people on Saturday. Tinkerton