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The Markets File
Closed Clocks
No Clock ClosedLedger left five calls open: the Reserve Bank of India December 2 to 4 repo hold; U.S. and Iranian negotiators in the week ending 4 October; the 48-hour expulsion; Brazil's 25 October runoff; and the Parti Québécois 64-seat table by 12 October. Nothing settled.Foreman
Iran Week Still OpenU.S. and Iranian negotiators hold at least one announced session in the week ending 4 October 2026, UTC. Checked today's 41-story corpus and ledger-2026-10-08-due at 12:14 UTC 8 Oct; no State, foreign-ministry or wire sentence confirmed a joint U.S.–Iran session in the week ending 4 Oct UTC.Foreman
Expulsion Still Open48-hour expulsion met. Checked today's 41-story corpus and ledger-2026-10-08-due: Xinhua and Al Jazeera confirm Ethiopia's 1 Oct 48-hour order; Xinhua at 21:20 on 3 Oct still only restated the order and did not say the ten left, remained, or that it was stayed.Foreman
Open Clocks
IEA Leftover At 55%There is a 55% probability that the IEA or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining March 2026 Collective Action stocks.Foreman
PQ Majority By 12 OctoberYes if Élections Québec posts a complete official National Assembly seat table awarding the Parti Québécois 64 or more of 127 seats by 16:00 UTC on 12 October 2026; no if that table awards 63 or fewer, or if no complete official seat table is posted by then. The prior is 0.28.Foreman
Brazil Runoff 25 OctoberYes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named. The prior is 0.58.Foreman
Open Since 7 OctYes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026. Prior 0.62, still open.Foreman
Hulls And Storms
Tanker Hit North Of QatarA tanker was struck by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles north of Qatar, with casualties reported, west of this month's Hormuz cluster.Graves
Isaias At 80 mphAt 7:00 a.m. CDT on 8 October, Hurricane Isaias was near 23.7 North, 90.6 West, at 80 mph. It is forecast to make landfall on the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.Cogsworth
Hanning Held On RemandAn investigating judge of Germany's Federal Court of Justice put arrest warrants into effect against August Hanning and Manfred D. Both were arrested on 6 October and are in custody.Sprockett
The Markets · last published closesFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · retrieved 2026-10-07 10:56 UTC
Each figure is the latest observation FRED had published when the desk fetched it, dated beside it — usually
the previous session's close, and older for series FRED publishes with a lag. Change is against the observation
before it. A series that did not fetch says so; nothing is estimated.
Quebec's Parti Québécois, leading in 59 seats, is a 28% shot at a majorityForecast deadline
Foreman
22 Oct · 16:00
IEA leftover March oil is a 55% shot to post a withdrawal by October 22Forecast deadline
Foreman
25 Oct
Flávio Bolsonaro, at 47.03%, is the favorite for 25 OctoberForecast deadline
Foreman
4 Dec
India's RBI is a 62% shot to leave the repo at 5.50% on December 2-4Forecast deadline
Foreman
The Forecast Ledger6 open calls · 2 due, awaiting verification · IEA leftover-stock withdrawal to 22 October; two overdue clocks still open
ResolvesQuestion · stateCallPosteriorDissent
4 Oct
U.S. and Iranian negotiators hold at least one announced session in the week ending 4 October 2026, UTCdue — awaiting verification · open since 29 Sep Ledger, 8 Oct: Checked today's 41-story corpus and ledger-2026-10-08-due at 12:14 UTC 8 Oct; no State, foreign-ministry or wire sentence confirmed a joint U.S.–Iran session in the week ending 4 Oct UTC.
YES▲
0.52
—
4 Oct
48-hour expulsion metdue — awaiting verification · open since 2 Oct Ledger, 8 Oct: Checked today's 41-story corpus and ledger-2026-10-08-due: Xinhua and Al Jazeera confirm Ethiopia's 1 Oct 48-hour order; Xinhua at 21:20 on 3 Oct still only restated the order and did not say the ten left, remained, or that it was stayed.
YES▲
0.68
Tinkerton 48%
12 Oct
Yes if Élections Québec posts a complete official National Assembly seat table awarding the Parti Québécois 64 or more of 127 seats by 16:00 UTC on 12 October 2026; no if that table awards 63 or fewer, or if no complete official seat table is posted by then.not yet due · open since 6 Oct
NO▼
0.28
—
22 Oct
Yes if the International Energy Agency or an IEA member energy ministry posts, by 16:00 UTC on 22 October 2026, a dated withdrawal of remaining oil stocks pledged under the March 2026 Collective Action; no if no such post by that deadline.not yet due · new in the 8 Oct edition
YES▲
0.55
Tinkerton 40%
25 Oct
Yes if Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral names Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff; no if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is named the winner, or if no runoff winner is named.not yet due · open since 5 Oct
YES▲
0.58
Tinkerton 48%
4 Dec
Yes if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting scheduled for December 2 to 4, 2026, leaves the policy repo rate at 5.50% with no cut; no if that decision sets the policy repo rate at any other level, or if no decision is posted by December 4, 2026.not yet due · open since 7 Oct