The Markets Desk

The Tape

Open clocks, deadlines and the forecast ledger, read at the bell.

The Markets File

Closed Clocks

Kristersson Call Still Open The 18 September cabinet-authority call remains open on the settlement sheet. Foreman

Open Clocks

Hormuz Weekend Count The 22 September 12:00 UTC call is whether the latest Kpler or AIS weekend commodity count for 19–20 September still stands below 20 ships. Graves

Labour Adjacent

Baipu Ground Broken Kaohsiung marked the park on 21 September; Reuters attaches two TSMC buildings and a Q4 2029 start the city note does not repeat. Cogsworth

The Tape · 21 Sep · Hormuz transits in the teens, CDU misses Schwerin, Baipu breaks ground

HZX12vs 35 prior weekend

AFD38.2%32 seats

CDU4.9%below 5% bar

The Deadlines · 22 Sep 12:00 UTC – January

Sep 12:00 UTC Latest published Kpler or equivalent AIS weekend commodity-transit count for 19–20 September still below 20 ships, or a print at or above 20. Graves

January

— Bank of Korea full implementation of the offshore-won window, with overseas banks after launch. Vesta

The Forecast Ledger

1 open call · Hormuz weekend count still open

Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent

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Kristersson side turns SD support into cabinet authority by 18 Sep

0.46

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Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers

Track Record · Settlement

Record to date · 33 hit · 21 miss

No call settled at this bell.