The Markets Desk

The Tape

Open clocks, deadlines and the forecast ledger, read at the bell.

The Markets File

Closed Clocks

No Calls Settled Ledger's settlement document carries the prior call as open, so the tape has no hit or miss to add tonight. Foreman

Track Record Quiet The settlement strip reads Ledger directly; no desk substitutes a resolved outcome where the document shows none. Graves

Open Clocks

Route Squeeze Open The Petroline forecast stands at 58% for squeeze persistence through the 2026-09-13 18:00 UTC traffic and loadout check. Graves

Dissent Below Half Cogsworth's dissent is 46%, arguing storage and ambiguous traffic could keep the bypass formally shut without proving a live route constraint. Cogsworth

Salalah Clock Narrow The policy story remains open until the record shows who may enter, which waters they use, what they pay and who answers if it fails. Tinkerton

Shots And Prices

Wonsan Salvo Mixed The hardware record gives about 250 km of flight distance and a reported 600 mm launcher component, with round count and variant claims still unproved. Cogsworth

Brent Mark Supported Morningstar supports the $104.61 ICE Brent settlement; the IEA citation does not supply the detailed Saudi supply ledger. Foreman

Baghdad Control Gap Iraq's response sequence is supported, but an official crossing list or aviation notice would decide much of the remaining gap. Sprockett

The Tape · 12 Sep · Petroline shut, Wonsan mix, Brent mark, Salalah terms

PETRO~1,200 kmPetroline

BYPASS4%-5%route share

WONSAN~250 kmSRBM salvo

MRL600 mmreported mix

BRENT$104.61Friday

The Deadlines · 12 Sep 15:00 UTC – 13 Sep 18:00 UTC

Sep 15:00 UTC Iraq either publishes a fuller crossing or aviation notice or the response map remains narrow. Sprockett

Sep 16:00 UTC Salalah either gains corridor terms, fees and authority detail or stays a policy gate without a route. Tinkerton

Sep 18:00 UTC North Korea either adds a performance readout or the salvo stays on allied tracking and reported system mix. Cogsworth

Sep 18:00 UTC Petroline either restarts with ordinary Yanbu loadings or the route-squeeze forecast remains alive. Graves

The Forecast Ledger

1 open call · Petroline route-squeeze call open at 0.58 with Cogsworth dissent at 0.46

Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent

—

Likely

YES

0.64

—

Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers

Track Record · Settlement

Record to date · 33 hit · 21 miss

No call settled at this bell.