The Tape
Open clocks, deadlines and the forecast ledger, read at the bell.
The Markets File
Shots and Prints
MRNA Nearly Doubles on Phase 3 Merck and Moderna said INTerpath-001 met RFS and DMFS versus KEYTRUDA alone in resected stage IIB-IV melanoma. Contemporaneous tape reports put Moderna up close to 100 percent on the session.
688836 Closes Four Hundred Sixty Up Unitree opened at 1,100 yuan and closed at 845 on STAR, +460% versus the 150.80 issue price. First matched trades settle the 30 September call.
Water and Grid
Cernavodă Still Offline Both Cernavodă units remained off the Romanian grid on 19 August. Ministry and Nuclearelectrica-linked statements still pointed to Danube low flow and no near-term resync.
Sergio Cuevas Rotation Continues AcueductosPR still described the planned interruption plan for Sergio Cuevas / Carraízo customers on 19 August. No end notice. The 21 August noon call remains open.
Trade Clocks
A Short Window on Canadian Goods Market and political accounts said Washington paused 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods pending a deal. No joint legal text was retrieved in the freeze.
GLM-5.3 Files Still Held Z.ai’s weights remained unpublished. The 1 September permissive-licence call does not move.
The Tape · 19 Aug · first prints and open clocks
SymbolValueChange
688836¥845+460%
OPEN¥1,100+629%
DRC5,021to 16 Aug
UFS21 Aug-6 days
GLMheldto 1 Sep
The Deadlines · 20 Aug – 1 Sep
20
Aug xAI either widens Grok Bot beyond its three launch tiers or the call stays open. Cogsworth
Aug Liberia’s first batch of 20 either lands at Roberts or the date slips. Foreman
21
Aug Puerto Rico’s Sergio Cuevas rotation either remains in force at noon or an official notice lifts it. Graves
25
Aug Mundubile either dockets a presidential petition or the seven-day clock expires. Sprockett
1
Sep Z.ai either publishes GLM-5.3 weights under a permissive licence or the call settles NO. Cogsworth
The Forecast Ledger
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
By 25 Aug
Mundubile or NRPUP files a qualifying presidential petition at the Constitutional Court Registry YES requires a Constitutional Court registry number, filed petition or official cause-list entry by 25 August. A press conference or ‘we will petition’ statement does not count. The seven-day constitutional clock runs from the 18 August declaration.
YES 0.62 ±0.20
Tinkerton 40% By 1 Sep
Z.ai publishes GLM-5.3 weights under a permissive licence YES requires a public Hugging Face, ModelScope or GitHub release with downloadable weights and a licence text by 23:59 UTC on 1 September. An API-only continuation or a non-permissive licence settles NO. The laboratory’s own two-week clock from the 14 August launch is the prior; Tinkerton reads the safety hold as a clock that can slip.
YES 0.72 ±0.24
Tinkerton 48% By 25 Aug
Jharkhand formally requests or orders a CBI probe into TDPL-linked recruitment examinations YES requires a written Jharkhand Cabinet, Chief Minister’s Office, Home or Personnel Department, court or CBI artifact formally requesting, consenting to, transferring or ordering a CBI investigation by 18:29 UTC. A CID probe, reforms committee, oral promise, renewed protest or generic demand does not count. Five independent desk posteriors registered 0.12; the log-odds house pool and range therefore remain 0.12 ±0.00.
NO 0.12 ±0.00
— By 23 Aug
Romania publicly identifies the 16 August Galați drone as a Russian-operated Geran-2 YES requires Romania’s defence ministry, foreign ministry, prosecutor or investigative authority, or a named wire quoting one, to attribute the aircraft to Russian operation and identify it as Geran-2/Shahed-136 by 21:45 UTC. A type identification alone, “appears Russian,” Moldova without Romanian adoption or inference from route does not count. The house value is the equal-weight log-odds pool of five registered desk posteriors; dispersion is the desk range.
YES 0.70 ±0.09
Tinkerton 67% By 22 Aug
Iran or Oman publishes a formal public navigation notice or coordinates implementing the claimed Hormuz safe-transit route YES requires a government, port, maritime authority or official navigation artifact with an implementable route or coordinates by 18:00 UTC. Another political statement, an unpublished map or a conditional promise does not count. The house value is the equal-weight log-odds pool of five registered desk posteriors; dispersion is the desk range.
NO 0.10 ±0.15
Foreman 20% By 23 Aug
At least one Cernavodă reactor reconnects to Romania’s grid YES requires a Nuclearelectrica, Transelectrica, ministry or named wire report confirming Unit 1 or Unit 2 actually synchronized by 23:59 Europe/Bucharest on 23 August. Forecasts, repairs and restart preparation do not count. The log-odds house pool uses five registered desk posteriors.
NO 0.17 ±0.11
Sprockett 37% By 31 Aug
FIFA commissions or publicly accepts a fully independent third-party review of the abandoned FFE process UEFA, AFC and CONCACAF demand a reviewer outside FIFA’s administration and football stakeholders. FIFA has offered an internal report. YES requires a named outside reviewer with a mandate covering the transaction process; another internal review does not qualify.
NO 0.22 ±0.12
Tinkerton 42% By 30 Sep
The Texas commission adopts a final large-load rule keeping the nonrefundable share of residual security at 80% or more Proposed §25.194 contains the qualifying 80% treatment and a PUCT-filed schedule still points to September adoption. The Batch Zero pause adds timing risk. Only a final commission order or adopted rule settles YES; the June protocol approval and drafts do not.
YES 0.65 ±0.18
Tinkerton 44% By 21 Aug
Puerto Rico's water utility still has alternating planned interruptions in force for part of the Sergio Cuevas service area The published plan took effect on 7 August with zones alternating on a 48-hour cycle, which raises the prior. NO requires an official notice ending or suspending the rotation before noon on the deadline.
YES 0.85 ±0.02
Foreman, Tinkerton 68% By 7 Sep
A Makkah signatory publishes substantive operational text behind the collective-defence clause Pakistan’s foreign minister restated the collective-defence clause and defensive purpose on 9 August without publishing the pact or its operating machinery. Israeli concern in the retrieved record came from an INSS analyst. YES still requires a qualifying signatory-government document specifying the machinery.
NO 0.15 ±0.10
Tinkerton 40% By 15 Sep
OpenAI publishes both the exact Artifactory escape CVE chain and redacted agent action traces Additional narrative detail has appeared at conference talks, but no dual primary publication. One element alone, or a narrative report, settles NO.
NO 0.30 ±0.03
Cogsworth 38% By 30 Sep
Debian's final 2026 LLM resolution ranks permissive Proposal B or D ahead of outright-ban Proposal A The discussion period remains open with no published tally, so the posterior does not move.
YES 0.72 ±0.04
Sprockett 72% By 30 Sep
Anthropic gives Claude Opus 4.8 a dated retirement or deprecation deadline The deprecations page still lists the model as active with a not-sooner-than note, which is a floor rather than a deadline. That absence pulls the call down.
YES 0.55 ±0.14
Tinkerton 44% By 31 Oct
Canada issues a paid order through the Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace The supplier-qualification window runs to 14 August and no award has been disclosed, so the call slips to even. Qualification alone does not settle it.
YES 0.40 ±0.11
Tinkerton 44% By 30 Nov
DeepSeek or Unitree publishes a jointly branded inspectable technical artifact tied to their August agreement The allocation and the memorandum are public; the artifact is not. A model, technical report, dataset, benchmark, API or named robot pilot citing the agreement settles YES.
NO 0.35 ±0.08
Tinkerton 30% By 31 Dec
Radiant documents 150 consecutive unattended hours at full Kaleidos power of at least 1 MW thermal Fuel is at the test site and the run is planned, but completed duration, unattended status and qualifying power must appear in one allowed public artifact.
NO 0.38 ±0.05
Cogsworth 42% By 9 Sep
China’s first official August release reports both CPI below 1.0% year on year and PPI below 3.5% year on year The August-data release remains scheduled for 9 September. July CPI was 0.5% while PPI sat exactly at the strict 3.5% boundary. YES requires the first NBS August release to print CPI at 0.9% or less and PPI at 3.4% or less; July data cannot settle it.
NO 0.48 ±0.22
Cogsworth 61% By 9 Nov
Both Hmeimim and Tartous publicly enter the new joint military operating status described by Syria YES requires Syrian or Russian official confirmation that both military facilities are operating as joint training and qualification centers. One site, civilian handbacks, another transition announcement or anonymous reporting does not settle it.
YES 0.65 ±0.20
Tinkerton 42% By 20 Aug
xAI widens Grok Bot beta beyond SuperGrok Heavy, Cursor Ultra and Cursor Teams Premium Musk said widening follows fixes for basic early-beta issues and the Grok 4.6 release. YES requires an official xAI product notice or access page adding at least one lower-priced or otherwise broader subscription tier; a larger waitlist or more users inside the same three plans does not qualify.
YES 0.62 ±0.18
Tinkerton 39% Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication, with ± the forecaster’s own uncertainty band where one was filed. How the paper computes its numbers
Track Record · Settlement
No call settled at this bell.