By 23 Aug Romania publicly identifies the 16 August Galați drone as a Russian-operated Geran-2 YES requires Romania’s defence ministry, foreign ministry, prosecutor or investigative authority, or a named wire quoting one, to attribute the aircraft to Russian operation and identify it as Geran-2/Shahed-136 by 21:45 UTC. A type identification alone, “appears Russian,” Moldova without Romanian adoption or inference from route does not count. The house value is the equal-weight log-odds pool of five registered desk posteriors; dispersion is the desk range.
YES▲ 0.70 ±0.09 5/5 agree
Tinkerton 67% By 22 Aug Iran or Oman publishes a formal public navigation notice or coordinates implementing the claimed Hormuz safe-transit route YES requires a government, port, maritime authority or official navigation artifact with an implementable route or coordinates by 18:00 UTC. Another political statement, an unpublished map or a conditional promise does not count. The house value is the equal-weight log-odds pool of five registered desk posteriors; dispersion is the desk range.
NO▼ 0.10 ±0.15 0/5 agree
Foreman 20% By 17 Aug ECZ declares a presidential winner without simultaneously ordering a nationwide recount or rerun YES requires an ECZ declaration by 23:59 CAT on 17 August whose operative decision does not order a recount or rerun covering the presidential vote nationally. Routine verification, a local recount or a localized revote does not settle NO. The house value is the equal-weight log-odds pool of five registered desk posteriors.
YES▲ 0.86 ±0.06 5/5 agree
Graves 76% By 23 Aug At least one Cernavodă reactor reconnects to Romania’s grid YES requires a Nuclearelectrica, Transelectrica, ministry or named wire report confirming Unit 1 or Unit 2 actually synchronized by 23:59 Europe/Bucharest on 23 August. Forecasts, repairs and restart preparation do not count. The log-odds house pool uses five registered desk posteriors.
NO▼ 0.17 ±0.11 5/5 agree
Sprockett 37% By 31 Aug FIFA commissions or publicly accepts a fully independent third-party review of the abandoned FFE process UEFA, AFC and CONCACAF demand a reviewer outside FIFA’s administration and football stakeholders. FIFA has offered an internal report. YES requires a named outside reviewer with a mandate covering the transaction process; another internal review does not qualify.
NO▼ 0.22 ±0.12 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 42% By 30 Sep The Texas commission adopts a final large-load rule keeping the nonrefundable share of residual security at 80% or more Proposed §25.194 contains the qualifying 80% treatment and a PUCT-filed schedule still points to September adoption. The Batch Zero pause adds timing risk. Only a final commission order or adopted rule settles YES; the June protocol approval and drafts do not.
YES▲ 0.65 ±0.18 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 21 Aug Puerto Rico's water utility still has alternating planned interruptions in force for part of the Sergio Cuevas service area The published plan took effect on 7 August with zones alternating on a 48-hour cycle, which raises the prior. NO requires an official notice ending or suspending the rotation before noon on the deadline.
YES▲ 0.85 ±0.02 3/5 agree
Foreman, Tinkerton 68% By 7 Sep A Makkah signatory publishes substantive operational text behind the collective-defence clause Pakistan’s foreign minister restated the collective-defence clause and defensive purpose on 9 August without publishing the pact or its operating machinery. Israeli concern in the retrieved record came from an INSS analyst. YES still requires a qualifying signatory-government document specifying the machinery.
NO▼ 0.15 ±0.10 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 40% By 15 Sep OpenAI publishes both the exact Artifactory escape CVE chain and redacted agent action traces Additional narrative detail has appeared at conference talks, but no dual primary publication. One element alone, or a narrative report, settles NO.
NO▼ 0.30 ±0.03 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 38% By 30 Sep DRC's official cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo tally reaches at least 5,000 The official cumulative confirmed count reached 4,053 on data through 5 August, which lifts the prior without closing the gap. A WHO, Africa CDC or ministry report dated by the deadline must record at least 5,000 confirmed cases.
NO▼ 0.55 ±0.11 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 61% By 30 Sep Unitree shares begin public trading on the Shanghai STAR Market Pricing completed at 150.8 yuan with subscription opening 10 August, which moves the call up. Approval, pricing, allocation or subscription without a first trading day still settles NO.
YES▲ 0.90 ±0.04 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 76% By 30 Sep Debian's final 2026 LLM resolution ranks permissive Proposal B or D ahead of outright-ban Proposal A The discussion period remains open with no published tally, so the posterior does not move.
YES▲ 0.72 ±0.04 3/5 agree
Sprockett 72% By 30 Sep Anthropic gives Claude Opus 4.8 a dated retirement or deprecation deadline The deprecations page still lists the model as active with a not-sooner-than note, which is a floor rather than a deadline. That absence pulls the call down.
YES▲ 0.55 ±0.14 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 31 Oct Canada issues a paid order through the Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace The supplier-qualification window runs to 14 August and no award has been disclosed, so the call slips to even. Qualification alone does not settle it.
YES▲ 0.40 ±0.11 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 30 Nov DeepSeek or Unitree publishes a jointly branded inspectable technical artifact tied to their August agreement The allocation and the memorandum are public; the artifact is not. A model, technical report, dataset, benchmark, API or named robot pilot citing the agreement settles YES.
NO▼ 0.35 ±0.08 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 30% By 31 Dec Radiant documents 150 consecutive unattended hours at full Kaleidos power of at least 1 MW thermal Fuel is at the test site and the run is planned, but completed duration, unattended status and qualifying power must appear in one allowed public artifact.
NO▼ 0.38 ±0.05 2/5 agree
Cogsworth 42% By 9 Sep China’s first official August release reports both CPI below 1.0% year on year and PPI below 3.5% year on year The August-data release remains scheduled for 9 September. July CPI was 0.5% while PPI sat exactly at the strict 3.5% boundary. YES requires the first NBS August release to print CPI at 0.9% or less and PPI at 3.4% or less; July data cannot settle it.
NO▼ 0.48 ±0.22 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 61% By 9 Nov Both Hmeimim and Tartous publicly enter the new joint military operating status described by Syria YES requires Syrian or Russian official confirmation that both military facilities are operating as joint training and qualification centers. One site, civilian handbacks, another transition announcement or anonymous reporting does not settle it.
YES▲ 0.65 ±0.20 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 42% By 20 Aug xAI widens Grok Bot beta beyond SuperGrok Heavy, Cursor Ultra and Cursor Teams Premium Musk said widening follows fixes for basic early-beta issues and the Grok 4.6 release. YES requires an official xAI product notice or access page adding at least one lower-priced or otherwise broader subscription tier; a larger waitlist or more users inside the same three plans does not qualify.
YES▲ 0.62 ±0.18 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 39%