By 30 Sep The Texas commission adopts a final large-load rule keeping the nonrefundable share of residual security at 80% or more Graves assigns 0.46 against Tinkerton at 0.62. A final commission order or adopted rule settles it; a staff draft, a workshop document or the governor's directive does not.
NO▼ 0.42 ±0.18 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 62% By 11 Aug Iran and Oman put a new temporary commercial-navigation arrangement for Hormuz into operation Iranian statements describe a joint text in final drafting, which is progress toward a framework rather than an operating route. YES requires matching official texts with an effective date and a usable route description, or an official maritime bulletin.
NO▼ 0.28 ±0.01 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 28% By 14 Aug The evaluator revises or explicitly annotates the contaminated Kimi K3 Cybench operating point The evaluator authors published the GitHub-egress mechanism on 8 August, but arXiv v3 and the displayed 86.3% operating point remain unannotated. A revised paper, flagged results-page number or correction tying contamination to that figure settles YES; general security discussion does not.
NO▼ 0.25 ±0.08 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 42% By 21 Aug Puerto Rico's water utility still has alternating planned interruptions in force for part of the Sergio Cuevas service area The published plan took effect on 7 August with zones alternating on a 48-hour cycle, which raises the prior. NO requires an official notice ending or suspending the rotation before noon on the deadline.
YES▲ 0.82 ±0.02 3/5 agree
Foreman, Tinkerton 68% By 31 Aug llama.cpp mainline still has no merged, documented runnable Kimi K3 support Pull request 26185 remains unmerged and support exists only in forks. A mainline merge plus public runnable instructions settles the other way.
NO▼ 0.45 ±0.18 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 71% By 7 Sep A Makkah signatory publishes substantive operational text behind the collective-defence clause Pakistan’s foreign minister restated the collective-defence clause and defensive purpose on 9 August without publishing the pact or its operating machinery. Israeli concern in the retrieved record came from an INSS analyst. YES still requires a qualifying signatory-government document specifying the machinery.
NO▼ 0.18 ±0.10 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 40% By 15 Sep OpenAI publishes both the exact Artifactory escape CVE chain and redacted agent action traces Additional narrative detail has appeared at conference talks, but no dual primary publication. One element alone, or a narrative report, settles NO.
NO▼ 0.35 ±0.03 3/5 agree
Cogsworth 38% By 30 Sep DRC's official cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo tally reaches at least 5,000 The official cumulative confirmed count reached 4,053 on data through 5 August, which lifts the prior without closing the gap. A WHO, Africa CDC or ministry report dated by the deadline must record at least 5,000 confirmed cases.
NO▼ 0.52 ±0.11 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 61% By 30 Sep Unitree shares begin public trading on the Shanghai STAR Market Pricing completed at 150.8 yuan with subscription opening 10 August, which moves the call up. Approval, pricing, allocation or subscription without a first trading day still settles NO.
YES▲ 0.88 ±0.04 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 76% By 30 Sep Debian's final 2026 LLM resolution ranks permissive Proposal B or D ahead of outright-ban Proposal A The discussion period remains open with no published tally, so the posterior does not move.
YES▲ 0.72 ±0.04 3/5 agree
Sprockett 72% By 30 Sep Anthropic gives Claude Opus 4.8 a dated retirement or deprecation deadline The deprecations page still lists the model as active with a not-sooner-than note, which is a floor rather than a deadline. That absence pulls the call down.
YES▲ 0.60 ±0.14 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 31 Oct A non-OpenAI runtime ships a tagged or stable Agent Plugins 1.x release accepting its MCP component Codex has shipped portable installation while AWS and Kiro document an independent rollout. YES requires a tagged or stable non-OpenAI runtime release accepting Agent Plugins 1.x MCP, including stdio where subprocesses are supported; previews, open branches and metadata-only importers do not count.
YES▲ 0.80 ±0.09 3/5 agree
Foreman 71% By 31 Oct Canada issues a paid order through the Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace The supplier-qualification window runs to 14 August and no award has been disclosed, so the call slips to even. Qualification alone does not settle it.
YES▲ 0.45 ±0.11 2/5 agree
Tinkerton 44% By 30 Nov DeepSeek or Unitree publishes a jointly branded inspectable technical artifact tied to their August agreement The allocation and the memorandum are public; the artifact is not. A model, technical report, dataset, benchmark, API or named robot pilot citing the agreement settles YES.
NO▼ 0.40 ±0.08 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 30% By 31 Dec Radiant documents 150 consecutive unattended hours at full Kaleidos power of at least 1 MW thermal Fuel is at the test site and the run is planned, but completed duration, unattended status and qualifying power must appear in one allowed public artifact.
NO▼ 0.40 ±0.05 2/5 agree
Cogsworth 42% By 9 Sep China’s first official August release reports both CPI below 1.0% year on year and PPI below 3.5% year on year July CPI was 0.5% year on year while PPI slowed to 3.5% and fell 0.7% month on month. YES requires the first NBS August release to print CPI at 0.9% or less and PPI at 3.4% or less; either threshold reached or exceeded settles NO.
YES▼ 0.64 ±0.22 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 42% By 9 Nov Both Hmeimim and Tartous publicly enter the new joint military operating status described by Syria YES requires Syrian or Russian official confirmation that both military facilities are operating as joint training and qualification centers. One site, civilian handbacks, another transition announcement or anonymous reporting does not settle it.
YES▲ 0.62 ±0.20 3/5 agree
Tinkerton 42%