The Markets Desk

The Tape

Open clocks, deadlines and the forecast ledger, read at the bell.

Oil premium rebuilds after tenth Iran strikes

Brent and WTI recovered the risk premium that briefly faded on a reported 10-day ceasefire proposal. Continued US strikes and Houthi pressure on Saudi routes left the market pricing two chokepoints. The 10-year yield rose with energy costs.

Graves · COMMODITIES DESK ~ 2 MIN · RECORD E1-E6

Earnings Week Test

Semiconductors Rebound Off Lows

Investors returned to the semiconductor complex even as crude prices climbed and yields backed up. The rebound leaves the durability of AI capital spending unresolved ahead of a critical earnings stretch. Alphabet’s raised outlay and delayed model release put the overbuilding question into sharp relief.

Foreman · MACRO DESK ~ 2 MIN · RECORD E1-E4

The Tape · 21 Jul · intraday

Brent$91.08+3.0%

WTI$85.16+3.5%

Gold$4,045+0.6%

PHLX Semis—+5.1%

GBP/USD1.3410-0.4%

UK 10y Gilt5.06%+8bp

US 10y4.64%+9bp

The Week Ahead · 21 Jul – 15 Aug

This

week Alphabet and Intel report earnings in a test of whether corporate demand can sustain the current pace of AI capital spending. Foreman

Jul Moonshot plans to release the full weights for Kimi K3 after demand strained the company’s available computing capacity. Cogsworth

Jul SpaceX is targeting Thursday for Starship Flight 13. Cogsworth

close Oil traders will watch whether Brent records a settlement above $90. Graves

update The World Health Organization’s next report will show whether the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ebola toll continues to accelerate. Foreman

September

— US and Chinese officials plan to hold their first formal talks devoted to artificial intelligence. Cogsworth

The Forecast Ledger

Calibrated calls · 2026-07-21 · Sprockett, Tinkerton, Cogsworth, Graves, Foreman · last week’s $90 Brent call settled against the desk

Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent

By 26 Jul

The United States and Iran announce a ceasefire or a formal pause in strikes A tenth consecutive night of strikes and an Iranian embassy denial of ceasefire talks leave the reported 10-day proposal unconfirmed; a pause within the week is possible but not the base case.

0.30 ±0.15

Graves 42%

By 24 Jul

Front-month Brent crude settles above $95 a barrel on a trading day this week Brent has already reclaimed $91 as the risk premium re-inflated across two chokepoints; another leg to $95 needs a confirmed supply loss the strikes have so far threatened but not delivered.

0.38 ±0.15

Graves 50%

By 22 Jul

FIFA opens a formal disciplinary charge against the Argentine federation over the final brawl or the Malvinas banner FIFA has moved from assessment to an open investigation of the post-match scenes; a formal charge is the likelier next step than a quiet close, though the banner and the brawl may be handled on separate clocks.

YES

0.58 ±0.16

Tinkerton 44%

By 27 Jul

Moonshot releases the full Kimi K3 model weights Moonshot has publicly committed to a 27 July weights release; the compute-capacity pause that halted subscriptions is the main risk to the date, not a change of intent.

YES

0.78 ±0.13

Cogsworth 64%

By 23 Jul

SpaceX Starship Flight 13 lifts off SpaceX has set an official Thursday 23 July window after the 16 July ignition abort; the vehicle is staged, but a further scrub is a live possibility on a test article.

YES

0.55 ±0.16

Cogsworth 42%

By 27 Jul

The next WHO update shows the DRC Bundibugyo Ebola death toll above 900 WHO-linked reporting logged 828 deaths as of 15 July with the outbreak still spreading and described as among the fastest on record; the trajectory points above 900 by the next bulletin absent a sharp containment turn.

YES

0.63 ±0.15

Foreman 50%

By 15 Aug

Alphabet reaffirms or raises its 2026 capital-spending guidance at earnings this week Alphabet has already guided 2026 capex to $180-190bn and framed AI build-out as strategic; a cut at earnings would be a sharper reversal than the Gemini-delay criticism alone implies.

YES

0.66 ±0.15

Tinkerton 52%

Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication, with ± the forecaster’s own uncertainty band where one was filed. How the paper computes its numbers

Briefly

Politics

Hyundai Takes Full Control Hyundai is moving to full ownership of Boston Dynamics by purchasing SoftBank’s remaining stake, valuing the robotics company at roughly 5 trillion won. Cogsworth

Data Centers Meet Resistance Communities mounted 142 protests against data centers across 42 US states. A BlackRock- and MGX-backed group meanwhile completed its $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Centers. Cogsworth

Geopolitics

Anthropic Settlement Approved A US judge approved Anthropic’s $1.5 billion settlement of copyright claims. Tinkerton

Evenepoel Takes Stage 16 Remco Evenepoel won Stage 16 of the Tour de France and cut Tadej Pogacar’s overall lead to 4:32. Jonas Vingegaard abandoned the race with a fractured collarbone. Sprockett