Hormuz tanker traffic fell to a two-month low as renewed U.S.–Iran strikes raised safety risks along the waterway. Only about six tankers made the transit on one recent Sunday, and no LNG carriers were visible over the weekend. On another day just three tankers crossed, the lowest count since May. Markets have begun to treat the strait as an active shipping bottleneck. [E1][E2]
Gulf crude and condensate exports climbed in July to roughly 12.0 million barrels a day according to Kpler estimates and 13.06 million by Vortexa figures. The volume stood about 16 percent above June levels yet remained around 32 percent short of the pre-war February peak of 17.6 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia moved about 75 percent of its July crude through the Red Sea port of Yanbu to sidestep the strait. These reroutes kept some barrels moving even as traffic through Hormuz itself stayed thin. [E2]
The world has absorbed the loss of more than one billion barrels of oil supply since the war began. Buffer stocks that once softened the initial shortfall have now been drawn down. With those reserves spent, any fresh interruption would land harder on prices and availability. [E3]
Pressure has shifted downstream into refined products and gas markets. Global diesel prices advanced about 21 percent in July amid record refining margins. Europe’s jet-fuel inventories now imply less than a month of demand cover and a projected third-quarter deficit near 600,000 barrels a day. A damaged Qatari LNG tanker continues to sit off Oman awaiting salvage after a strike near the strait. [E4][E6]
Analysts have embedded an $18-a-barrel risk premium in crude prices. One assessment holds that a one-month halt of Hormuz flows could lift benchmark gas prices by roughly 130 percent. Separate views place Brent in an $80–90 range without further escalation, or sliding toward $70 if tensions ease. [E5]
Crude has not broken above $90 and physical cargoes continue to move through the Yanbu reroutes. The market is therefore pricing a constrained system, not an outright rupture. Yet the shock absorbers that cushioned the first phase of the disruption are gone, leaving far thinner margins for any new shock.