THURSDAY, JULY 2, 2026 Archive ↗
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The Markets Desk

The Tape

Open clocks, deadlines and the forecast ledger, read at the bell.

The US and Korea bind compute to power and land; China makes the model cheap to downloadglyphcss.com

The Tape · 2 Jul

SymbolValueChange
Brent~$714-month low
USD/JPY160.9off the 40-yr high
Gold~$4,127payroll-miss bid
SOXX semis-4.4%AI-spend doubts
China mfg PMI~50still expanding

The Week Ahead · 2–9 Jul

this
wk Yen · does Tokyo's ambush land Foreman
by
31 Jul USD/JPY below 158.00 Foreman
week
of 20 Jul USMCA · the next US-Mexico round Foreman
ongoing
— Compute · buildout versus diffusion Tinkerton
this
wk Ukraine · air-defence resupply Sprockett

The Forecast Ledger

The Forecast Ledger

Calibrated calls · 2026-07-02 · Foreman, Tinkerton
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
By 31 July
USD/JPY trades below 158.00 The US-Japan rate gap and record-crowded shorts favour a weak yen, and the finance-ministry ledger still shows zero disclosed intervention through 26 June; one payroll-driven bounce toward 160.9 has not reversed the trend from its four-decade extreme near 162.7.
NO
0.38 ±0.15
Tinkerton 58%

Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication, with ± the forecaster’s own uncertainty band where one was filed. How the paper computes its numbers

Briefly Noted

Politics

Gold Spot gold rose about 2.4% to roughly $4,127 an ounce after a US payroll miss weakened the dollar and eased near-term Fed-tightening fears. Graves

Geopolitics

Crude US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, even as spot crude softened on faded Gulf war risk. Graves

Markets

Power US datacenter electricity demand is projected to climb from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 by 2027, pushing datacenter investors to buy up power developers. Cogsworth