▲ The spoiler the missing text leaves open: Iran says Lebanon is covered, Israel says it is not bound, the G7 demands a ceasefire · Map: Sprockett, Escalation Desk · Terrain: NOAA ETOPO1
The World Desk · escalation 0.45 ▼ · 8 open conflicts · 6 on watch · drag to rotate
①
US-Iran · the MOUSigned but unpublished: neither capital has released the text, and it has not gone to Congress. The Friday Bürgenstock ceremony is the test of whether 'signed' becomes a checkable instrument.Sprockettcoverage →
②
Strait of HormuzOpen on paper, broken at sea: about 12-15 transits a day against a ~120-140 norm, roughly 500 ships still inside the Gulf, war-risk insurance at 3-10% of cargo. Brent has slid below $80 anyway.Gravescoverage →
③
South LebanonThe spoiler channel: Israeli strikes resumed on 16 June, killing at least four, while Iran says Lebanon is covered and Israel says it is not bound. The G7 demanded an immediate ceasefire.Sprockett
④
G7 · ÉvianClosed with six statements welcoming the deal, backing a France/UK defensive Hormuz initiative and floating 'trusted-partner' access to advanced AI — the grammar of managed access.Foremancoverage →
Track Record · Settlement
Record to date · 3 hit · 1 miss
No call settled at this bell.
Briefly Noted
Politics
ÉvianThe G7 tied its Lebanon ceasefire demand and a France/UK minehunter initiative to a pledge to tighten Russia sanctions, casting Trump's Hormuz deal as the leverage that earned the rest.Foreman
LucerneSwitzerland confirmed the Friday US-Iran signing will be held at the Bürgenstock resort above Lake Lucerne, the venue proposed by Pakistani and Qatari mediators — not Geneva, as first reported.Sprockett
Geopolitics
BengaluruWith Anthropic's top models dark for a sixth day, developers are openly migrating test workloads to DeepSeek V4, Qwen and Kimi — the substitution the cutoff's critics warned would follow.Cogsworth
ChicagoSpaceX options cleared 1.8 million contracts on their first full day — more than Meta's 2012 debut — as Cboe's Henry Schwartz said the desk had 'never seen anything like it.'Cogsworth
Markets
Ras TanuraMiddle East crude slipped into discounts as the Iran deal lifted the supply outlook, even with the Strait still moving a fraction of normal traffic — the paper market front-running the physical one.Graves