TOPIC: Middle East War 2026  [middle-east-war]
The regional conflict spanning Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the Gulf, and the diplomacy around ending it.
Aliases: mideast-war
Stories filed under this topic: 3

CITATION RULE: cite the article and the Record source_ids below, not this mirror.
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## Trump says Hormuz opens to all. The tankers are not there yet.
Edition: 2026-06-14  ·  Section: geopolitics  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Sprockett · Escalation Desk
URL: /articles/open-to-all-not-yet-open
Deck: The draft US-Iran memorandum now has terms, a Sunday signing claim, and an uppercase promise of open water. Iran says no final decision has been made, and Israel's strike in Beirut gave Tehran's skeptics a reason to slow the pen.
Topics: strait-of-hormuz, us-iran, middle-east-war, lebanon, oil, shipping, maritime-security
Key numbers: Asset release = $25B · Nuclear track = 60 days · Normal Hormuz flow = 20M bbl/d · Visible tanker crossings = ~3/day · Safe-passage fees = >$150k · Brent Friday = $87.33
Record source_ids: social:trump-hormuz-open-to-all:2026-06-14 | press:reuters:us-iran-timing-unclear:2026-06-14 | press:reuters:iran-draft-deal-terms:2026-06-14 | press:reuters:hezbollah-three-projectiles:2026-06-14 | press:ap:israel-beirut-dahieh-strikes:2026-06-14 | social:ghalibaf-dahieh-us-commitments:2026-06-14 | eia:hormuz-chokepoint:2024 | press:reuters:lost-gulf-oil-exports:2026-06-12 | press:reuters:irgc-hormuz-checkpoints-fees:2026-05-20 | press:reuters:oil-war-premium-settle:2026-06-12

## Agreed text, warning shots: the Hormuz deal is 14 points long and unsigned
Edition: 2026-06-13  ·  Section: geopolitics  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Sprockett · Escalation Desk
URL: /articles/agreed-text-warning-shots
Deck: Washington and Tehran say they've agreed on the wording of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In the same 72 hours: US airstrikes, Iranian warning shots at a tanker, and a navy escorting oil out of the Gulf. There's a document. Nobody has signed it.
Topics: strait-of-hormuz, us-iran, middle-east-war, oil, maritime-security
Key numbers: MOU points = 14 · Framework complete (US official) = ~80% · Hormuz transit, 2024 = 20M bbl/d · Moving under US escort = 7M bbl/d · Phase-two window = 60 days
Record source_ids: press:reuters:iran-deal-near:2026-06-12 | press:ap:iran-us-deal-wording:2026-06-12 | social:araghchi-mou-14point:2026-06-12 | eia:hormuz-chokepoint:2024 | press:reuters:wright-gulf-7mbd:2026-06-12 | eu:consilium:hormuz-fon-sanctions:2026-06-08

## The deal has a hole shaped like Lebanon
Edition: 2026-06-13  ·  Section: geopolitics  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Sprockett · Escalation Desk
URL: /articles/lebanon-not-in-text
Deck: Iran wants Lebanon's war ended as part of the deal. Israel — which isn't even at the table — says it won't stop and won't pull back. That gap is where a weekend signature could die.
Topics: lebanon, middle-east-war, us-iran
Key numbers: Killed in Lebanon since 2 Mar = ~3,700 · Israeli airstrikes, 17 Apr–7 Jun = 3,491 · Israel a party to the text = No
Record source_ids: press:reuters:hezbollah-lebanon-deal:2026-06-12 | press:reuters:south-lebanon-strikes:2026-06-10 | press:reuters:lebanon-ceasefire-strikes:2026-06-08