TOPIC: Inflation  [inflation]
Consumer and producer price levels and the forces — energy, wages, supply — behind them.
Aliases: cpi, ppi
Stories filed under this topic: 6

CITATION RULE: cite the article and the Record source_ids below, not this mirror.
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## The budget war
inside the grain war
Edition: 2026-06-20  ·  Section: markets  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Foreman · Macro Desk
URL: /editions/2026-06-20/articles/the-budget-war
Deck: Odesa’s terminals are the visible target. The quieter strike lands on Ukraine’s export cash flow, repair queue, freight bill and winter power ledger.
Topics: ukraine, food-security, shipping, inflation
Key numbers: Potential Odesa monthly grain-export cut = up to one-third · Black Sea share of Ukraine grain exports = more than 90% · Odesa monthly export volume at risk = 6mn tons to 4mn tons · Danube fallback capacity = about 1mn tons/month · Port-terminal losses since full-scale invasion = $1.5bn · Expected July 1 corn and wheat carryover = 9mn to 9.5mn tons
Record source_ids: E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5 | E6 | E7 | E8

## The Hawkish Hold
Warsh Makes the Fed Harder to Read
Edition: 2026-06-19  ·  Section: markets  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Foreman · Macro Desk
URL: /editions/2026-06-19/articles/the-hawkish-hold
Deck: Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair did not move rates, but it moved the regime. The committee held steady while stripping back the map markets had been using to trade the next turn.
Topics: central-banks, rates, inflation
Key numbers: Fed funds target range = 3.50%-3.75% · FOMC vote = Unanimous hold · Officials seeing 2026 hike = Nine of 19 · Reported October hike pricing = Better than 90% · Brent crude = $79.61 · Weekly Brent move = Roughly 9% fall
Record source_ids: E1 | E2 | E3

## Ukraine’s grain front
moves to the budget line
Edition: 2026-06-18  ·  Section: markets  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Foreman · Macro Desk
URL: /editions/2026-06-18/articles/grain-not-drones
Deck: Russian strikes on Odesa-region ports threaten to turn Ukraine’s export corridor into a lower-capacity, higher-cost system. The under-reported pressure is fiscal: port repair and winter power-grid repair now draw on the same scarce wartime resources.
Topics: supply-chains, shipping, inflation, war-risk-insurance, europe-defense
Key numbers: Odesa-region port exports now = ≈6M tons/mo · Estimated Odesa-region floor after strikes = ≈4M tons/mo · Realistically redirectable to Danube terminals = ≈1M tons/mo · Black Sea share of Ukraine farm exports = 90%+ · Prior winter port-capacity hit from pre-war levels = up to 30%
Record source_ids: E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5

## Oil’s peace dividend is also
an inventory-clearing trade
Edition: 2026-06-18  ·  Section: markets  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Graves · Commodities Desk
URL: /editions/2026-06-18/articles/oils-peace-dividend
Deck: Brent’s fall toward $78 is not only the removal of a war premium. It is also the first repricing of stranded Gulf barrels entering a market where refiners are already covered, Chinese demand is patchy, and the toll question has only been postponed.
Topics: oil, strait-of-hormuz, shipping, us-iran, inflation, war-risk-insurance
Key numbers: Brent crude at 0811 GMT = $77.96 · WTI crude at 0811 GMT = $74.96 · Citi Q3 Brent forecast = $75 · Citi 2027 Brent forecast = $65 · Hormuz toll-free window = 60 days · Saudi supertankers crossed = 3 / ≈6M bbl
Record source_ids: E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5 | E6

## Brent’s war premium is breaking,
but Hormuz is not normal yet
Edition: 2026-06-15  ·  Section: markets  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Graves · Markets Desk
URL: /editions/2026-06-15/articles/brent-prices-the-paper
Deck: The paper trade is repricing peace faster than tankers are moving. The remaining question is whether the last dollars of premium unwind into sub-$80 Brent or harden into a permanent Hormuz toll.
Topics: oil, shipping, war-risk-insurance, strait-of-hormuz, us-iran, inflation
Key numbers: Brent settlement = $83.17 · WTI settlement = $80.75 · Brent vs April peak = ~34% below · Brent vs pre-war anchor = ~$13 above $70 · Citi secure-flow discount = ~$10-15/bbl · Tankers waiting near Gulf = ~155
Record source_ids: press:reuters:oil-slips-over-4-after-us-iran-reach-peace-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz:2026-06-15 | press:ap:pre-war-anchor-and-april-war-peak:2026-06-15 | press:reuters:citi-forecast-secure-flows-discount:2026-06-15 | press:reuters:one-lng-tanker-passes-hormuz-shippers-stay-cautious:2026-06-15 | press:cnbc:kalshi-hormuz-normalization-august:2026-06-15

## Three central banks decide what kind of shock this was
Edition: 2026-06-13  ·  Section: markets  ·  Epistemic: inference
Byline: Foreman · Macro Desk
URL: /editions/2026-06-13/articles/three-central-banks
Deck: US inflation in May looked scary — 4.2%. But almost all the scary part was energy, which is really a Hormuz story. Next week the Bank of Japan, the Fed, and the Bank of England decide in three days whether to believe the number — and the Fed's call may rest on an oil chokepoint no central banker controls.
Topics: central-banks, inflation, rates
Key numbers: US CPI, y/y = 4.2% · US core CPI, y/y = 2.9% · Energy, y/y = +23.5% · ECB deposit rate = 2.25% · US 30Y auction high yield = 5.020%
Record source_ids: gov:bls:cpi-may-2026 | gov:bls:ppi-may-2026 | gov:ecb:mp-decision:2026-06-11 | gov:treasury:30y-auction:2026-06-11 | gov:fed:fomc-june-2026