The Reserve Bank of India on Saturday, 10 October, announced a special window from Monday, 12 October, to meet the entire daily dollar requirements of three public-sector oil marketing companies, Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, as the rupee remained under pressure near record lows, and said the facility will remain operational until further notice. [E4][E7] Reuters reported that the three companies can meet their entire daily dollar requirements through a special RBI facility rather than sourcing those dollars normally. [E1][E2][E3] This paper's 7 October forecast covered the repo-rate increase; Saturday's instrument is a dollar window.
Dollars will be sold to the three companies through designated banks. [E8]
On Friday the rupee closed at 96.73 against the dollar, almost near 97. [E8]
Authorised dealers may hedge contracted exposures without showing the underlying only up to $5 million, down from $100 million, and the matching threshold for rupee-linked exchange-traded currency contracts was lowered. [E5]
Designated banks for the oil-company window were not identified, nor were the pricing mechanism and the volume of dollars expected to be supplied. [E6]
India's foreign-exchange reserves dipped by $12.95 billion to $734.60 billion in the week ended 2 October. [E9]
The desk's reading. There is a 64% probability that a named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 13 October 2026, that Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum met their 12 October dollar requirements through the Reserve Bank of India's special window and stayed off onshore spot-market bids. The 64% is the posted-report call. The companies staying off those bids is 76%. A 12% no-report path is priced separately and settles no. The start is the announced instrument: a standing facility that covers the entire daily dollar need of three named companies from a named Monday, with sales through designated banks. The designated-bank channel and a rupee already at 96.73, against reserves that had already fallen in the week to 2 October, move the stay-off probability up. Unpublished banks, price and volume move the posted-report call down, because a window that cannot be drawn still leaves the companies bidding, and because a draw that is not written down still settles no. The competing reading is that Saturday is rupee signalling in the same week as a rate increase, and that the three companies will still bid for dollars on Monday. A named report that they drew the window and stayed off bids would move the call up; a named report that any of them bid in the onshore market, or silence by the deadline, would move it down.
The next test. A named official source or named news outlet reports, by 16:00 UTC on 13 October 2026, that Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum met their 12 October dollar requirements through the RBI special window and did not bid for those dollars in the onshore spot market. That report confirms the quantity intervention took their demand off the open market. A report that any of the three bid in that market confirms they did not stay off. No such report by the deadline settles no, including if they stayed off and the record did not arrive.