Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party was leading or elected in 59 of Quebec's 127 National Assembly seats on Monday night, against 64 needed for a majority. [E18][E4] The night was a five-way race that left the province divided and the federalist vote splintered, as of 9 p.m. [E2] The Globe and Mail reported that the numbers appear enough for a minority government, with some seats yet to be called; CTV News projected a minority; CBC's Decision Desk projected a Parti Québécois win without saying whether it would be a majority or a minority. [E3][E15][E14] The separatist party is projected to form government in Quebec after promising an independence referendum in the next four years. [E1]
Monday's election ended Coalition Avenir Québec rule after consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault; the CAQ, in power for eight years, was leading or elected in four seats. [E9][E18] The Liberals were in second place, and CTV News projected they will form the official opposition. [E10][E17] The provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, is projected to win National Assembly seats for the first time. [E11] The Parti Québécois has not been in power since 2014. [E16]
St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his first term, and has promised that vote once Donald Trump leaves office in 2029, when he says Quebec can have a "serene" discussion about its future. [E16][E6] He largely avoided discussing the referendum, presenting himself as a candidate of change. [E13] Polls show about 30% of Quebeckers support independence; previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40% and 49%. [E8] The election comes with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away and persistent threats to Canada's sovereignty and economy from Trump. [E5] The Globe and Mail reported that the prospect of a Quebec independence vote increases if the PQ ekes out a majority. [E1] With a minority, the PQ would need support from other parties' members to trigger a referendum and to stay in power, and it remains uncertain whether Québec solidaire would support those ambitions. [E7][E12]
There is a 28% probability that the Parti Québécois holds a majority when Élections Québec posts a complete official count by 16:00 UTC on 12 October. The base is an incomplete election-night seat table below the majority line. The assumption is that uncalled ridings will split and that some current leads can still change. A late sweep of those ridings, or an official table at or above the majority line, would move the number.