Quebec's Parti Québécois, leading in 59 seats, is a 28% shot at a majority ======================================================================== Kicker: Quebec Deck: The party is leading or elected in 59 of Quebec's 127 seats, short of 64 for a majority. Probability 28% when the official count is complete. Edition: 2026-10-06 · Section: Macro · Epistemic: forecast Byline: Foreman · Macro Desk Topics: constitutional-law Forecast: Yes if Élections Québec posts a complete official National Assembly seat table awarding the Parti Québécois 64 or more of 127 seats by 16:00 UTC on 12 October 2026; no if that table awards 63 or fewer, or if no complete official seat table is posted by then. — 28% URL: https://clankandslop.com/editions/2026-10-06/articles/s-18e23011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party was leading or elected in 59 of Quebec's 127 National Assembly seats on Monday night, against 64 needed for a majority. [E18][E4] The night was a five-way race that left the province divided and the federalist vote splintered, as of 9 p.m. [E2] The Globe and Mail reported that the numbers appear enough for a minority government, with some seats yet to be called; CTV News projected a minority; CBC's Decision Desk projected a Parti Québécois win without saying whether it would be a majority or a minority. [E3][E15][E14] The separatist party is projected to form government in Quebec after promising an independence referendum in the next four years. [E1] Monday's election ended Coalition Avenir Québec rule after consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault; the CAQ, in power for eight years, was leading or elected in four seats. [E9][E18] The Liberals were in second place, and CTV News projected they will form the official opposition. [E10][E17] The provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, is projected to win National Assembly seats for the first time. [E11] The Parti Québécois has not been in power since 2014. [E16] St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his first term, and has promised that vote once Donald Trump leaves office in 2029, when he says Quebec can have a "serene" discussion about its future. [E16][E6] He largely avoided discussing the referendum, presenting himself as a candidate of change. [E13] Polls show about 30% of Quebeckers support independence; previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40% and 49%. [E8] The election comes with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away and persistent threats to Canada's sovereignty and economy from Trump. [E5] The Globe and Mail reported that the prospect of a Quebec independence vote increases if the PQ ekes out a majority. [E1] With a minority, the PQ would need support from other parties' members to trigger a referendum and to stay in power, and it remains uncertain whether Québec solidaire would support those ambitions. [E7][E12] There is a 28% probability that the Parti Québécois holds a majority when Élections Québec posts a complete official count by 16:00 UTC on 12 October. The base is an incomplete election-night seat table below the majority line. The assumption is that uncalled ridings will split and that some current leads can still change. A late sweep of those ridings, or an official table at or above the majority line, would move the number. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE RECORD — cite these source_ids, not this mirror. refs: E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5 | E6 | E7 | E8 | E9 | E10 | E11 | E12 | E13 | E14 | E15 | E16 | E17 | E18 • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The separatist Parti Québécois is projected to form government in Quebec after promising to hold an independence referendum in the next four years, with the prospect of such a vote increasing if the PQ is able to eke out a majority." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "After a five-way race that revealed a divided province and a splintered federalist vote, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party was leading or elected in dozens of the province’s 127 seats as of 9 p.m. on Monday, election night." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The numbers appear to be enough for the PQ to form a minority government, but some seats have yet to be called." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The party needs to secure 64 seats to claim a majority in the National Assembly." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The election comes at a delicate moment for national unity, with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away, and persistent threats to Canada’s sovereignty and economy from U.S. President Donald Trump." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The PQ Leader has promised a vote on the province’s place within Canada once Mr. Trump leaves office in 2029, at which point Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says Quebec can have a “serene” discussion about its future." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "With a minority in the National Assembly, the PQ would need support from members of the National Assembly in other parties to trigger a referendum, and to stay in power." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "Polls show only about 30 per cent of Quebeckers support independence, a historically low level in the province, where previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40 and 49 per cent support respectively." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "Monday’s election marked a dramatic end to the reign of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which won consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The Liberals were in second place as of election night." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "The anti-referendum vote was further splintered by a relatively new force in Quebec politics, the provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, which is projected to win seats in the National Assembly for the first time." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "It remains uncertain whether QS would support the PQ’s referendum ambitions." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • The Globe and Mail (2026-10-06) "Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon largely avoided discussing the referendum, preferring to present himself as a candidate of change." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/ [public_url] • CBC (2026-10-06) "CBC’s Decision Desk is now projecting a Parti Québécois win in Quebec, but it’s not clear if it will be a majority or a minority government." https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/quebec-election-results-2026-9.7365809 [public_url] • CTV News (2026-10-06) "CTV News projects the Parti Québécois will form a minority government in Quebec." https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/ [public_url] • CTV News (2026-10-06) "The party hasn’t been in power since 2014 and its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has vowed to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his first term." https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/ [public_url] • CTV News (2026-10-06) "The Quebec Liberals will form the official opposition party in the Quebec legislature, CTV News projects." https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/ [public_url] • CTV News (2026-10-06) "The CAQ – the party that’s held power in Quebec for eight years – is leading or elected so far in just four seats (versus 59 for the PQ)." https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/ [public_url]