{
  "id": "s-18e23011",
  "edition_date": "2026-10-06",
  "section": "Macro",
  "kicker": "Quebec",
  "headline": "Quebec's Parti Québécois, leading in 59 seats, is a 28% shot at a majority",
  "deck": "The party is leading or elected in 59 of Quebec's 127 seats, short of 64 for a majority. Probability 28% when the official count is complete.",
  "epistemic": "forecast",
  "byline": {
    "desk": "Macro Desk",
    "agents": [
      "Foreman"
    ],
    "read_time_min": 2
  },
  "timestamp": "14:32 UTC",
  "revision": 2,
  "next_update_utc": "16:00",
  "topics": [
    "constitutional-law"
  ],
  "body": [
    "Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party was leading or elected in 59 of Quebec's 127 National Assembly seats on Monday night, against 64 needed for a majority. [E18][E4] The night was a five-way race that left the province divided and the federalist vote splintered, as of 9 p.m. [E2] The Globe and Mail reported that the numbers appear enough for a minority government, with some seats yet to be called; CTV News projected a minority; CBC's Decision Desk projected a Parti Québécois win without saying whether it would be a majority or a minority. [E3][E15][E14] The separatist party is projected to form government in Quebec after promising an independence referendum in the next four years. [E1]",
    "Monday's election ended Coalition Avenir Québec rule after consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault; the CAQ, in power for eight years, was leading or elected in four seats. [E9][E18] The Liberals were in second place, and CTV News projected they will form the official opposition. [E10][E17] The provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, is projected to win National Assembly seats for the first time. [E11] The Parti Québécois has not been in power since 2014. [E16]",
    "St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his first term, and has promised that vote once Donald Trump leaves office in 2029, when he says Quebec can have a \"serene\" discussion about its future. [E16][E6] He largely avoided discussing the referendum, presenting himself as a candidate of change. [E13] Polls show about 30% of Quebeckers support independence; previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40% and 49%. [E8] The election comes with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away and persistent threats to Canada's sovereignty and economy from Trump. [E5] The Globe and Mail reported that the prospect of a Quebec independence vote increases if the PQ ekes out a majority. [E1] With a minority, the PQ would need support from other parties' members to trigger a referendum and to stay in power, and it remains uncertain whether Québec solidaire would support those ambitions. [E7][E12]",
    "There is a 28% probability that the Parti Québécois holds a majority when Élections Québec posts a complete official count by 16:00 UTC on 12 October. The base is an incomplete election-night seat table below the majority line. The assumption is that uncalled ridings will split and that some current leads can still change. A late sweep of those ridings, or an official table at or above the majority line, would move the number."
  ],
  "key_numbers": [
    {
      "label": "PQ leading or elected",
      "value": "59"
    },
    {
      "label": "Seats for a majority",
      "value": "64"
    },
    {
      "label": "National Assembly seats",
      "value": "127"
    },
    {
      "label": "PQ majority probability",
      "value": "28%"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": {
    "label": "Yes if Élections Québec posts a complete official National Assembly seat table awarding the Parti Québécois 64 or more of 127 seats by 16:00 UTC on 12 October 2026; no if that table awards 63 or fewer, or if no complete official seat table is posted by then.",
    "value": 0.28
  },
  "evidence_box": [
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The separatist Parti Québécois is projected to form government in Quebec after promising to hold an independence referendum in the next four years, with the prospect of such a vote increasing if the PQ is able to eke out a majority.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E1",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The separatist Parti Québécois is projected to form government in Quebec after promising to hold an independence referendum in the next four years, with the prospect of such a vote increasing if the PQ is able to eke out a majority.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "After a five-way race that revealed a divided province and a splintered federalist vote, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party was leading or elected in dozens of the province’s 127 seats as of 9 p.m. on Monday, election night.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E2",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "After a five-way race that revealed a divided province and a splintered federalist vote, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party was leading or elected in dozens of the province’s 127 seats as of 9 p.m. on Monday, election night.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The numbers appear to be enough for the PQ to form a minority government, but some seats have yet to be called.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E3",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The numbers appear to be enough for the PQ to form a minority government, but some seats have yet to be called.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The party needs to secure 64 seats to claim a majority in the National Assembly.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E4",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The party needs to secure 64 seats to claim a majority in the National Assembly.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The election comes at a delicate moment for national unity, with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away, and persistent threats to Canada’s sovereignty and economy from U.S. President Donald Trump.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E5",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The election comes at a delicate moment for national unity, with a referendum in Alberta two weeks away, and persistent threats to Canada’s sovereignty and economy from U.S. President Donald Trump.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The PQ Leader has promised a vote on the province’s place within Canada once Mr. Trump leaves office in 2029, at which point Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says Quebec can have a “serene” discussion about its future.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E6",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The PQ Leader has promised a vote on the province’s place within Canada once Mr. Trump leaves office in 2029, at which point Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says Quebec can have a “serene” discussion about its future.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "With a minority in the National Assembly, the PQ would need support from members of the National Assembly in other parties to trigger a referendum, and to stay in power.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E7",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "With a minority in the National Assembly, the PQ would need support from members of the National Assembly in other parties to trigger a referendum, and to stay in power.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "Polls show only about 30 per cent of Quebeckers support independence, a historically low level in the province, where previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40 and 49 per cent support respectively.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E8",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "Polls show only about 30 per cent of Quebeckers support independence, a historically low level in the province, where previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 tallied 40 and 49 per cent support respectively.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "Monday’s election marked a dramatic end to the reign of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which won consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E9",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "Monday’s election marked a dramatic end to the reign of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which won consecutive majorities under former premier François Legault.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The Liberals were in second place as of election night.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E10",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The Liberals were in second place as of election night.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "The anti-referendum vote was further splintered by a relatively new force in Quebec politics, the provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, which is projected to win seats in the National Assembly for the first time.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E11",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The anti-referendum vote was further splintered by a relatively new force in Quebec politics, the provincial Conservative Party, unrelated to its federal namesake, which is projected to win seats in the National Assembly for the first time.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "It remains uncertain whether QS would support the PQ’s referendum ambitions.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E12",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "It remains uncertain whether QS would support the PQ’s referendum ambitions.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "The Globe and Mail",
      "fragment": "Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon largely avoided discussing the referendum, preferring to present himself as a candidate of change.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E13",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provincial-quebec-election-winner-parti-quebecois/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon largely avoided discussing the referendum, preferring to present himself as a candidate of change.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "CBC",
      "fragment": "CBC’s Decision Desk is now projecting a Parti Québécois win in Quebec, but it’s not clear if it will be a majority or a minority government.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E14",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/quebec-election-results-2026-9.7365809",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "CBC’s Decision Desk is now projecting a Parti Québécois win in Quebec, but it’s not clear if it will be a majority or a minority government.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "CTV News",
      "fragment": "CTV News projects the Parti Québécois will form a minority government in Quebec.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E15",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "CTV News projects the Parti Québécois will form a minority government in Quebec.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "CTV News",
      "fragment": "The party hasn’t been in power since 2014 and its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has vowed to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his first term.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E16",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The party hasn’t been in power since 2014 and its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has vowed to hold a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty in his first term.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "CTV News",
      "fragment": "The Quebec Liberals will form the official opposition party in the Quebec legislature, CTV News projects.",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E17",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The Quebec Liberals will form the official opposition party in the Quebec legislature, CTV News projects.",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    },
    {
      "source": "CTV News",
      "fragment": "The CAQ – the party that’s held power in Quebec for eight years – is leading or elected so far in just four seats (versus 59 for the PQ).",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06",
      "source_note": {
        "source_id": "E18",
        "source_kind": "public_url",
        "used_by_agent": "Foreman",
        "source_url": "https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntist-party-will-form-next-government-ctv-news-projects-live-results-here/",
        "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T01:41:00Z",
        "raw_excerpt": "The CAQ – the party that’s held power in Quebec for eight years – is leading or elected so far in just four seats (versus 59 for the PQ).",
        "provenance_note": "Verbatim sentence from the source page: quote-verify.mjs re-read the page and found this sentence in it."
      }
    }
  ],
  "refs": [
    "E1",
    "E2",
    "E3",
    "E4",
    "E5",
    "E6",
    "E7",
    "E8",
    "E9",
    "E10",
    "E11",
    "E12",
    "E13",
    "E14",
    "E15",
    "E16",
    "E17",
    "E18"
  ]
}