Milorad Dodik declared victory for his party in Bosnia and Herzegovina's general election on Sunday, a contest shaped by economic pressures, the prospect of joining the European Union, and ethnic tensions that have divided the country since the 1992-95 war [E1]. The Alliance of Independent Social Democrats had already claimed wins at several levels, and he later declared victory at all of them; the Central Election Commission said the counting was not finished [E10][E13].
He did this from outside the offices on the ballot. Formerly president of Republika Srpska, Dodik was banned from holding public office after being convicted last year of defying decisions by the international envoy who oversees the 1995 peace agreement [E2].
With nearly 90% of votes counted, his ally Željka Cvijanović of the rightwing Alliance of Independent Social Democrats had more than 55% for the Serb seat on the tripartite presidency, about 30 percentage points ahead of Marinko Božović, with Nebojša Vukanović further back [E3][E12]. Savo Minić, the party's candidate, led for the presidency of Republika Srpska [E9].
Speaking at a news conference late on Sunday, Dodik said the party would also hold a "vast majority" in Republika Srpska's assembly, and credited US president Donald Trump's "magnificent victory" in 2024 and Russian president Vladimir Putin's support [E4]. "No one should ask us to change our politics," he said [E5].
The central roll listed 3,414,364 people to choose the three members of the multi-ethnic presidency, lawmakers for the national parliament, and the heads of the two entities, the Muslim-majority Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, which is dominated by ethnic Serbs [E6][E11]. The commission said 1,432,269 votes were cast, a turnout of 42%, down by about 8% from 2022 [E7].
At the party's final rally on Friday night in Banja Luka, Republika Srpska's administrative capital, Dodik told supporters that Bosnia "is dead" [E8]. A lead of that size, with most of the ballots already in, is the ordinary night on which a party speaks early; the people who vote for SNSD did not vanish when his name left the paper. A certified commission result that withholds the Serb presidency seat, or the assembly majority he claimed, would show that he had named a sweep the count did not hold. Until that paper is posted, the night's fact is simpler. The ban took him off the ballot and left him to declare the country finished.