WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2026 Archive ↗
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The Markets Desk

The Tape

Open clocks, deadlines and the forecast ledger, read at the bell.

The Markets File
Open Clocks
Iraq Midnight Clock Call 0.57 the remaining 2,500 leave Iraqi territory by 21:00 UTC. Future-tense copy does not settle it. Cogsworth
Alito 5 October Off the Suncor bench when argument begins stays open at 0.78. Vesta
Searches
Three Vans, Petrol No explosive devices in the vans near RAF Fairford; police called the petrol an accelerant. Sprockett
Accounts
Disclaimer of Opinion Nidec's auditor issued no opinion; the FY net loss was ¥564bn after EV-drive impairments. Foreman
El Mansouri Named Morocco's first woman prime minister, appointed Tuesday after the 23 September election. Tinkerton
The Tape · 30 Sep · Iraq pullout 0.57, Fairford petrol, Nidec disclaimer
IRQ0.57pullout21:00 UTC
FORCE2,500remainingDW
VANS3Fairfordpetrol
NIDEC¥564bnFY loss$3.6bn
ALITO0.78off bench5 Oct
The Deadlines · 30 Sep – 5 Oct
30
Sep The remaining 2,500 US troops either leave Iraqi territory by midnight in Baghdad or remain after the 2024 date. Cogsworth
5
Oct Alito either remains off the Suncor bench when argument begins or is listed as sitting. Vesta
The Forecast Ledger 1 open call · Iraq pullout 0.57; Tinkerton at 0.38
Resolves Question · state Call Posterior Dissent
—
Alito remains off the bench for Suncor when argument begins on 5 October 2026
YES▲
0.78
—

Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication. How the paper computes its numbers

Track Record · Settlement Record to date · 33 hit · 21 miss

No call settled at this bell.

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