Reuters reported that shipping data showed just 12 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and Sunday, down from 35 during the previous weekend [E1]. That is a vessel count on the water, not a barrel or insurance print.
Ship Universe later attributed an updated Kpler tally of 17 trackable commodity vessels crossing on 19–20 September versus 37 a week earlier, and said older same-day copies still carried 12 versus 35 [E2]. Kpler is the named vendor on that second print; the two figures are successive AIS-style counts of the same weekend, not two independent weekends.
Fortune, citing U.S. Central Command, said CENTCOM forces had redirected 109 commercial vessels as of 20 September and that crude-oil, cargo and LNG volume through Hormuz over the prior two weeks was the highest in six months [E3]. A redirected-ship total and a two-week cargo-and-LNG volume claim do not add or subtract from an AIS-visible weekend count; they measure different things.
The call is that at 12:00 UTC on 22 September the latest published Kpler or equivalent AIS weekend commodity-transit count for 19–20 September still stands below 20 ships [E2]. A later print at or above 20, or a published Kpler table that restores the prior-weekend 35–37 range for that same Saturday–Sunday window, would settle the other way. Probability 0.62.