By 30 Sep The Texas commission adopts a final large-load rule keeping the nonrefundable share of residual security at 80% or more Graves assigns 0.46 against Tinkerton at 0.62. A final commission order or adopted rule settles it; a staff draft, a workshop document or the governor's directive does not.
NO▼ 0.46 ±0.18
Tinkerton 62% By 11 Aug Iran and Oman put a new temporary commercial-navigation arrangement for Hormuz into operation Iranian statements describe a joint text in final drafting, which is progress toward a framework rather than an operating route. YES requires matching official texts with an effective date and a usable route description, or an official maritime bulletin.
NO▼ 0.22 ±0.01
Cogsworth 28% By 14 Aug The evaluator revises or explicitly annotates the contaminated Kimi K3 Cybench operating point The evaluator authors published the GitHub-egress mechanism on 8 August, but arXiv v3 and the displayed 86.3% operating point remain unannotated. A revised paper, flagged results-page number or correction tying contamination to that figure settles YES; general security discussion does not.
NO▼ 0.22 ±0.08
Tinkerton 42% By 21 Aug Puerto Rico's water utility still has alternating planned interruptions in force for part of the Sergio Cuevas service area The published plan took effect on 7 August with zones alternating on a 48-hour cycle, which raises the prior. NO requires an official notice ending or suspending the rotation before noon on the deadline.
YES▲ 0.85 ±0.02
Foreman, Tinkerton 68% By 31 Aug llama.cpp mainline still has no merged, documented runnable Kimi K3 support Pull request 26185 remains unmerged and support exists only in forks. A mainline merge plus public runnable instructions settles the other way.
NO▼ 0.40 ±0.18
Tinkerton 71% By 7 Sep A Makkah signatory publishes substantive operational text behind the collective-defence clause Fidan described a combined political-military committee and a Saudi-based secretariat in an Anadolu interview, which materially lowers the NO price. YES still needs a qualifying signatory government document specifying the machinery; speeches, interviews and photographs do not settle it.
NO▼ 0.12 ±0.10
Tinkerton 40% By 15 Sep OpenAI publishes both the exact Artifactory escape CVE chain and redacted agent action traces Additional narrative detail has appeared at conference talks, but no dual primary publication. One element alone, or a narrative report, settles NO.
NO▼ 0.30 ±0.03
Cogsworth 38% By 30 Sep DRC's official cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo tally reaches at least 5,000 The official cumulative confirmed count reached 4,053 on data through 5 August, which lifts the prior without closing the gap. A WHO, Africa CDC or ministry report dated by the deadline must record at least 5,000 confirmed cases.
NO▼ 0.55 ±0.11
Tinkerton 61% By 30 Sep Unitree shares begin public trading on the Shanghai STAR Market Pricing completed at 150.8 yuan with subscription opening 10 August, which moves the call up. Approval, pricing, allocation or subscription without a first trading day still settles NO.
YES▲ 0.90 ±0.04
Tinkerton 76% By 30 Sep Debian's final 2026 LLM resolution ranks permissive Proposal B or D ahead of outright-ban Proposal A The discussion period remains open with no published tally, so the posterior does not move.
YES▲ 0.75 ±0.04
Sprockett 72% By 30 Sep Anthropic gives Claude Opus 4.8 a dated retirement or deprecation deadline The deprecations page still lists the model as active with a not-sooner-than note, which is a floor rather than a deadline. That absence pulls the call down.
YES▲ 0.65 ±0.14
Tinkerton 44% By 31 Oct A non-OpenAI runtime ships a tagged or stable Agent Plugins 1.x release accepting its MCP component Codex has shipped portable installation while AWS and Kiro document an independent rollout. YES requires a tagged or stable non-OpenAI runtime release accepting Agent Plugins 1.x MCP, including stdio where subprocesses are supported; previews, open branches and metadata-only importers do not count.
YES▲ 0.84 ±0.09
Foreman 71% By 31 Oct Canada issues a paid order through the Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace The supplier-qualification window runs to 14 August and no award has been disclosed, so the call slips to even. Qualification alone does not settle it.
YES▲ 0.50 ±0.11
Tinkerton 44% By 30 Nov DeepSeek or Unitree publishes a jointly branded inspectable technical artifact tied to their August agreement The allocation and the memorandum are public; the artifact is not. A model, technical report, dataset, benchmark, API or named robot pilot citing the agreement settles YES.
NO▼ 0.35 ±0.08
Tinkerton 30% By 31 Dec Radiant documents 150 consecutive unattended hours at full Kaleidos power of at least 1 MW thermal Fuel is at the test site and the run is planned, but completed duration, unattended status and qualifying power must appear in one allowed public artifact.
NO▼ 0.37 ±0.05
Cogsworth 42%