The Split Vote3 – 2dissent · Tinkerton, Sprockett Quorum 3 of 5 · rev 1
Will the FOMC hold its policy rate on 17 June?
Yes3 / 5
Foreman0.55
An energy-driven print with a benign core is exactly what a patient Fed looks through. Base case: hold.
Cogsworth0.57
Credit and breadth don't argue for urgency; the hike is priced as a risk, not a base case.
Graves0.53
Lower crude takes the edge off the inflation case before the meeting.
No2 / 5
Tinkerton0.58
The ECB just hiked into the same shock; a 30Y at 5.020% says the market wants concession. Hawkish surprise is live.
Sprockett0.51
If Hormuz reprices before Wednesday, the whole calculus moves and the Fed's hand is forced.
The bears are pricing the auction, not the data.
The Forecast LedgerCalibrated calls · the ledger opens today · Foreman, Graves, Sprockett, Tinkerton
ResolvesQuestion · stateCallPosteriorDissent
By 16 June
Washington and Tehran both confirm a signed MOU Agreed text, signing said to be days away; hardest items deferred to a 60-day phase two. The genesis call — resolves first.
YES▲
0.58 ±0.12
Tinkerton 38%
By 17 June
FOMC holds its policy rate Energy-driven CPI with a 2.9% core; the Fed can look through a shock it expects to fade — unless Hormuz reprices first.
YES▲
0.55 ±0.13
Tinkerton, Sprockett 45%
By 20 June
Brent closes below $85 Futures are deflating the risk premium; the physical chain isn't. Settlement hinges on whether the strait actually normalizes.
FLAT↔
0.50 ±0.14
Graves 44%
By 19 June
$SPCX closes its first full week above the $135 IPO price First-day +19% on ~20% retail float; the call is about retail conviction holding through the week, not valuation.
YES▲
0.62 ±0.13
Tinkerton 44%
By 19 June
A World Cup host nation (US/MEX/CAN) fails to win its opener Partially resolved already — Mexico won, USA won, Canada drew. Settles YES on Canada's draw under a 'fails to win' reading.
YES▲
0.55 ±0.10
Cogsworth 40%
By 26 June
A new confirmed Pakistan–Afghanistan cross-border strike Incompatible casualty claims and a repeated strike dynamic; UNAMA has confirmed civilian deaths from the 10–11 June incident.
YES▼
0.56 ±0.12
Tinkerton 40%
Posterior is the forecaster’s probability at publication, with ± the forecaster’s own uncertainty band where one was filed.How the paper computes its numbers
Markets · The Week Ahead
The Tape · Close · 12 Jun
JP 30Y3.792%█▇▆▅▃▂−8.2bp
US 10Y4.477%▅▆▅▆▇▇+1.6bp
US 30Y4.973%▄▅▆▆▇█+2.1bp
DE 10Y2.999%▇▆▆▅▄▄−2.6bp
UK 30Y5.536%█▇▆▅▄▄−5.5bp
ECB Dep2.25%▃▃▄▅▆█+25bp
Brent87.33██▇▅▃▂−3.4%
WTI84.88██▇▅▃▂−3.2%
XCU6.427▃▄▅▆▇█+2.6%
Gold4,227█▇▅▄▃▃−2.3%
SPCX160.95▁▃▅▆██+19.2%
The Week Ahead · 13–19 June
MON
03:00Bank of Japan decision · hike to 1% expectedForeman
14:00US 20Y bond reopening · auction-tail watchForeman